| |  | | Charles Devalle | There’s one common thing among financial analysts: They aren’t always right. Take for instance when bond king and PIMCO boss man Bill Gross said the Dow would plummet 40% during the 2002 bear market. Did it? No. Does that make him anything less than an amazing bond investor? Not at all. Truth is Bill Gross has said a few things that didn’t play out. But he’s also said a few things that did. And so have famous investors like Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett. You see, being wrong is part of the game. There’s no avoiding it. But what separates a good investor from a great one is the ability to know when you’re wrong and quickly adjust course. Just think of every track record you’ve ever seen. Has anyone ever won them all? Of course not. And for a lot of options professionals, being wrong is what they deal with two-thirds of the time. For them, it’s fine because their winners are big enough to make up for their losses. This shows that good investors realize that they will be wrong, so they make sure their trading strategy can remain profitable after the expected losses. So, am I wrong from time to time? Even though I’d like to think that I’m superhuman, I’m not. So of course I’m wrong. And one of our readers called me out on it when they wrote in … Dear Charles, I used to receive and read IDE every day. However, if I recall our last exchange correctly (this was about 6+ months ago), you had just written a column talking about how Forex players were likely to start investing in the dollar again because the core inflation indicators were under control. And I wrote you an email that said, in polite euphemisms, that you were full of it. Now some months later, we can see that I, the amateur retail trader, was right, as the dollar has continued its march into the toilet, and nobody's been buying it, and you, the professional advice-offerer, were wrong. Then today, I get an emailed solicitation from you to subscribe to your global profits hotline.
So let me pose a question to you: if you were me, would YOU pay money to subscribe? If you want to send me your option plays at no cost, I'll be glad to look at them. Otherwise, no thank you. Best regards, Gerry Schwartz Dear Gerry, I congratulate you on being right. I hope you put your money to work for you because you would have made out very well. With that said, you are right. In that article I thought the dollar was going to start rallying. This was an extremely bold call considering the dollar was on a solid multi-year long downtrend. Of course, this was before the credit crunch and before inflation numbers got out of control again. Unfortunately, I was wrong. The thing is, though, I never pretend to be right all the time. I, like Bill Gross, Peter Lynch, and Warren Buffet certainly get things wrong from time to time. After all, I don’t have a crystal ball. By the same token, I’m sure you’ve gotten a few bets wrong too. There’s no one in this world that’s played the market and not lost. This brings me to your next question… would I buy a subscription to IDE’s Global Profits Hotline because I got one bet on the dollar wrong? It’s a tough question to ask me because I know all the things I’ve gotten right. For example, I was right about the long-term video game bull-run. Companies like Nintendo, EA, and Take Two have rocketed 100-200% since this bull market started. Oh, and I was right about silver too. I’ve been talking for years about how silver prices needed to go up. That was 100% ago. And then there was my silver report, which gave three different silver investments. As of this writing, one company is up over 140%, the other is up over 35%, and the last is up about 15%. Not a bad return for bets placed in August of last year. I was also right about uranium, solar power, the LED upgrade cycle, the supply crunch in polysilicon, the spread on bond rates needing to contract, how increasing exports would help buffer the economy in a downturn, the 100% pop in palladium, and a host of other things. You probably weren’t aware of all of these things. But, because I was the one who thought of them and wrote about them, I knew. That’s why I’d feel comfortable with buying a subscription. So here’s my suggestion to you and everyone else reading. Before you ever buy into a high-priced subscription, make sure you trust the person running it. If you had followed my writings for the past year and a half, you’d have a great idea of how I invest, what I believe about the market, and how often I’m right or wrong. I can guarantee that if you do that, you’d feel confident enough to buy a subscription to my service. But you have to realize that not one investor in this world is right all the time. In fact, most investors are right only about half the time. Me, I’m right about 70% of the time.
The unfortunate thing though, is that some readers buy into our subscription services expecting us to be right 100% of the time. Nobody can do that. So maybe we win the first four or five trades and then lose two in a row. When we take that loss, we see a huge increase in refunds for that service. Did people forget that losing is a part of investing? Now, those that asked for a refund are likely to miss the next winning streak. It’s obvious they didn’t completely trust the person running the service. So when you’re looking at these services, you have to trust the person who’s running it and the strategy they employ. And everyone here at IDE has a unique system they use to run their services. Rick Pendergraft, for example, has done quite well making very short-term trades and a 50% winning percentage. That’s his style. Sometimes he takes losses, but his average win is twice as large as his average loss. The net result is that his readers are up big. Lynn Carpenter uses a multi-variant approach to trading. And she’s been right about 70% of the time. Sure, she’ll get a loss or two. But it doesn’t mean she’s a bad trader. It just means she’s human! Let’s not forget about Russell McDougal, Andrew Gordon, and Andy Carpenter. All have phenomenal track records and are experts at what they do. And all of them are wrong from time to time too. But it doesn’t take away from how well they’ve done. It just makes them human. So the question is, are you giving our editors a good chance to show you how well they can do in the markets? If you’re the type of person who buys a subscription and then cancels after the first loss or two, you probably shouldn’t have gotten into that service. In the end, we want a long-term relationship with you, not a one-night stand. That’s why we’ve made it as easy as possible for you to see how we do, with no risk at all. Every one of our services is backed by a 100% money back guarantee. If you don’t like what you see during the trial period (which is 30-90 days, depending on the service), then just let us know and you get back every cent. I can personally say without a shadow of a doubt, that the team here at IDE is one of the best in the industry. And we’re willing to prove that to you over and over again. To your success,
Charles P.S. To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com. INTERNAL ENDORSEMENT Recession in 2008? Here’s how to Make a Fortune! It is often said that stocks take the stairs on the way up... and the elevator on the way down. It’s true. When investors hit the panic button, look out below. And there are a lot of signs to suggest more downside is on the way in early 2008. Are you prepared to profit if this happens? Is your portfolio protected? Either way, you’ll want to learn about a trading service that can provide protection – an advisory that has already produced gains of 203%... 129%... and 101% in just the last few months. To learn more, please continue reading... | | 
