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| Leeb's Market Forecast | |
| April 23, 2008 | |
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| Dear Investor,
Leeb’s Ground-Floor Trader Weekly Update The past week's developments in the economy and the stock market were undramatic, for a change. But take a step back, and something interesting is happening.
A chart of the broad stock market over the past three months shows a steady decline, augmented by several sharp down days, then a flattening period over the past two weeks. Smoothing out the market's patterns using moving averages confirms the notion that the downward momentum has ceased, at least of late.
Could this be a bottom?
It would be premature to say so, given the enormous uncertainties hanging over stocks right now -- including the alarming rise in the price of crude oil, now at a record $118 a barrel, and the ongoing litany of major writedowns and bailout deals involving lenders with too much exposure to the subprime mess. However, a cold-eyed look at overall economic statistics, along with the market's short-term plateau, provides backing to the view that stocks are not headed over a cliff.
Granted, the growing consensus of experts is that the U.S. has entered a recession -- at least in the technical sense of two straight quarters of economic contraction. However, we think it's likely that if there's a recession, it will turn out to be mild and short-lived. Several of the usual indicators of recession simply aren't barking right now. These include unemployment insurance claims, which have remained below 400,000; industrial commodity prices, which are booming; and the behavior of the broad market, which is looking better than large-cap stocks. Advertisement Who says real estate is in a slump? Housing prices may have declined in recent months. But you can still make a lot of money in real estate these days. Let me show you how ... For one thing, houses have become more affordable than they have been for a long time. And with interest rates low, the next few months look like a great opportunity to snap up bargains in real estate. Even better ... there are ways you can make some very big, very fast profits from the rebound in the housing industry without ever owning a piece of land, and for a much smaller investment upfront. How big? How fast? How about a 48% return in just 2 days! That's what participants in Leeb's ETF Trader program made in the beginning of this month from the bounce in the homebuilder stocks. And that's just the beginning. Many more great short-term trading opportunities could arise in the next few months as the recovery in the housing industry catches most investors completely by surprise. Let us show you how to multiply your short-term profits from housing and other fast rising sectors. We'll give you all the instructions as to how and when place your trades. The only things you need are the willingness to act and a commitment to only use this program for the speculative part of your portfolio. Best of all: as a TCI subscriber, you can try out this program right now for a discount of $2,000 off the regular rate -- and enjoy a 60-day moneyback guarantee if you change your mind. What could be better than that? Just click on this link ... Leeb's ETF Trader -------------------------------------
In addition, many sectors of the stock market are performing all right, thanks either to continued solid corporate-profit growth or the expectation that improved profit growth will arrive in the coming quarters.
So our view remains that stocks in general are in better shape than many believe. Indeed, the widespread gloom about the economy and the stock market is consistent with other periods in history where the market was at or close to a bottom. No doubt, we remain at risk of significant downside in the broad stock market should oil continue to move much higher -- a scenario that can't be discounted, given the worrisome supply-demand dynamics in the energy markets.
A worsening of the credit crisis and/or the true failure of a major financial institution also could send stocks much lower, although we think this scenario is much less likely. And of course, a geopolitical crisis, particularly in the
Our approach remains to emphasize those areas benefiting from the inexorable rise in commodity prices that we see continuing in the coming years -- especially in energy and precious-metals. We'll also invest selectively in other areas based either on particular trends affecting an industry or company or on stock-specific factors, such as especially attractive valuation.
As always, we continue to monitor the IPO market and look for compelling low-priced-stock opportunities as they arise. This is a difficult market in which to make money, but as our recent trades of Micron Technology, Charles Schwab and Visa indicate, opportunities to make profit are out there. We're working hard to find them.
Until next week, Your Ground Floor Trader Team Advertisement How to make money staying out of stocks -- mainly. In volatile markets, here's how you can make better returns picking your entry points carefully and taking profits as they come... Micron Technology (MU) is a semiconductor maker whose products appear in a wide range of consumer electronics. On April 2, we took advantage of the stock trading at a historically low price/book ratio. The stock has also been in the process of rebounding from a 52-week low - and it was supposed to report its quarterly results. Plus, there had been some positive news for the industry as a whole. Now, if this had been 1998, we might have bought this stock and held it for a year or more. But with today's uncertainty, we would rather take profits as they come. So 14 days later, when the stock was up nearly 11% above our entry price, we were quite happy to sell -- instantly eliminating any risk that the price would pull back. Another example was our recent trade on Charles Schwab (SCHW). Schwab had limited exposure to the subprime meltdown and credit crisis, but its share price had been pulled down along with the entire financial industry. We expected that when the company announced good earnings there would be a rebound in the shares. So we bought the stock right before the earnings announcement, and sold it the next day for a profit of over 8% -- which is a great return considering our market risk lasted less than 24 hours. To get in on trades like these, check out Leeb's Ground Floor Trader program. It's easy to use. It takes very little time. You don't need much trading experience -- because we give you all the help you need. It doesn't use complicated strategies like options. And it comes with a 60-day moneyback guarantee, so you can essentially test-drive it for free. Just follow this link... Leeb's Ground Floor Trader. ---------------------------------- If you cannot view this mailing click here. This email was sent to LEMMETRY@GMAIL.COM. You are receiving this email because you have requested a free subscription to Dr. Stephen Leeb's Market Forecast. Click here to be removed from this mailing list. Click here to be removed from all of our promotional offers. TCI Enterprises, LLC 500 5th Ave., 57th Floor New York, NY 10110 Disclaimer TCI Enterprises LLC, The Complete Investor, Emerging Investments, Leeb ETF Trader, Leeb IPO Insight, Leeb's Aggressive Trader and their affiliated companies and publications ("TCI" or "Letters" or "Publications") are not registered as a broker dealer or investment advisers with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or any state securities authority. Letters and their information and content providers make no representations or warranties of any kind in connection with the subject matter, performance or the suitability of the information contained in publications for any purpose and are not liable for the timeliness, accuracy, or completeness of the information contained herein. The information contained in publications is provided for general informational purposes, and is not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation familiar with your personal circumstances. Please seek the advice of professionals, as appropriate, regarding the evaluations of any specific security, report, opinion, advice or other content. TCI is not responsible for any trades placed by the recipients of TCI based on the information included therein. There can be no assurance that your portfolio or positions can achieve the indicated performance and therefore, the sample performance information should not be relied upon. Investment recommendations are not intended to be construed to be personalized advice, or recommendations to buy, hold, or sell mentioned securities and readers should consider their personal situation before making any investment. All opinions expressed and information and data provided therein are subject to change without notice. TCI, its officers, directors, employees, and/or associated entities may have positions in and from time to time make purchases, or sales of the securities discussed or mentioned in TCI. TCI shall have no liability for any e-newsletter that is lost, intercepted or not received by you in a timely manner, or at all, for any reason.  |
