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Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Are You Engaging in Unsafe Investing?

 
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Wednesday, April 23, 2008
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Commodities in a Recession/Depression Part 2: Real Wealth

By Dr. Russell McDougal

My ongoing premise is the US is now in or near depression mode. It’s a fairly lonely stance to take because almost everyone believes the official economic numbers cast our way. That is a very costly mistake.

Any sustained recession with falling employment and production can start to look like a depression. We fit that description if you look at real statistics. Some pundits think that you have to have the same scenario as the “Great Depression” to qualify as one. That’s pretty shallow. Quite obviously the one in the 1930’s forward was “greater” than other depressions. Hello.

You don’t have to see execs jumping from tall buildings or hoboes gathering in camps to have a depression. Look the word up… preferably in an older dictionary.

The central planners in charge of our economy are still in denial that we’re even in recession. You and I, living in the real world, do not have that luxury. Our present environment clearly qualifies as depression. Only the degree of it is yet to be determined. Maybe it’s a mild depression? Some might call it merely a severe recession. Whatever you want to call it… it’s anything but pretty.

Semantics aside; all want to know how to financially survive this morass. IDE reader “Mike” recently asked… “I've been reading up on your previous articles in the archives, yet I fully do not understand what constitutes as tangible assets. Is it possible for you to do a series of articles on tangible assets?”

Good question, Mike. I’ll be brief here. We’re looking at items that are “substantially real” or “capable of being touched”. Gold or silver, in hand, are the most obvious examples. A piece of paper that represents a claim to gold or silver in someone else’s hands does not qualify.

You can hold a $100 bill in your hand but it has zero intrinsic value. It is an I.O.U. In fact it is an I.O.U. nothing. There’s nothing behind it but misplaced confidence and government mandates. We work for them, spend them and sometimes even save them mostly out of convention.

A few ‘tangible assets’ are:

1. Bullion- gold, silver, platinum or palladium coins or bars
2. Numismatic or rare coins
3. Valuable art
4. Collectables
5. Land or Real Estate (with little to no debt)
6. Miscellaneous

This is by no means a complete list. The general idea is to own items that have historically protected citizens in times of monetary excesses. None of these items can be manufactured by a simple stroke of the keyboard. Owning barrels of oil or truck loads of zinc isn’t practical though these are also tangible items.

The Fed is futilely attempting to inflate their way out of their current predicament. The expression is “inflate or die”. A coming article will expound on this premise.

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Every elitist bailout is inflation by definition. A lot of banking cronies are deep under water right now. Those that don’t understand or recognize the inflationary process put themselves in financial peril. I tried to make a joke in a recent editorial about not having “unprotected finances” (like unprotected sex). Hopefully, a couple of our thousands of readers got the joke.

I was referring to protection via owning tangible assets. I was also referring to understanding the inflationary process and the jeopardy of holding only ‘paper’ assets.

Commodities, in general, tend to benefit in times of inflation. The non-Federal non-Reserve is pulling out all stops to bring it forth.  

Here are a couple of charts for those that don’t believe commodities can appreciate during times of recession or even “prolonged recession”:

 From John Williams’ Shadow Government Statistics website

 

The blue line shows a recessionary environment (negative growth) almost exclusively throughout the 2000’s. Does that look “sustained” to you? Now let’s look at commodity prices as represented by the CRB:



Obviously, commodities can appreciate during times of economic stress. They’ve done so for the better part of the last seven years. It just wasn’t an officially recognized recession. Chuckle.

As we saw last week, both gold and silver are real money. They thrive in times of monetary crisis. Whatever you want to call the present mess, recession or depression, it is clearly an historic monetary mess.

About that ‘protection’…

Invest Resourcefully,

Rusty

P.S. To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.

Market Watch

An Upbeat Copper Outlook

By Charles Delvalle

Some say that if the U.S. economy begins to shrink, we’ll see demand for metals drop, especially copper. Well, it doesn’t matter if the U.S. is in a recession or not because copper demand will continue to grow thanks to emerging economies like China, India and Brazil. Mix this in with sporadic strikes that cut back copper production and you have a clear cut case for higher copper prices in the future.

Just take a look at a chart of copper to see what I’m talking about…

As you can see, the price of copper has been rising since late 2001. But since 2007, copper prices haven’t passed the 400 level. Even with that happening, copper continues to make higher lows.

This forms an inverted triangle pattern. Over time, we should see copper not move under the blue line and continue to rally back up to the red line.

But if copper can manage to breakthrough 400, then we should see copper rally hard.

The best way to take advantage of this is to buy Southern Peru Copper (PCU) as soon as you see the copper prices break through the 400 level.

And if you want an option to play, you can be sure that I’ll be recommending one to readers of IDE’s Global Profits Hotline.

Good trading,

Charles

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If you enjoy IDE's daily investing advice, you'll definitely be interested in checking out our sister publication, Early to Rise. Each morning, you'll get powerful wealth-building advice covering real estate, entrepreneurship, personal finance, marketing, and much more.
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The Market Minute

Will the Dow keep dropping?.. It’s hard to say. Sure, the major indices are overbought and should move down from here. But then again, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) recently broke under its 200-day moving average. The VIX typically drops when the market rises. So if the VIX can’t get back above its 200-day, you should expect the market to stay flat or rally in the weeks ahead.

 
RST
 
In The Markets
 
Last
Change
YTD
Dow 12,720.23 none104.79 -4.11%
Nasdaq 2,376.94 none31.10 -10.38%
S&P 500 1,375.94 none12.23 -6.29%
Gold 915.90 none1.20 9.91%
Silver 17.51 none0.09 18.55%
Oil 119.5 none1.89 24.51%
Nat Gas 10.55 none0.15 41.04%
 
Newsworthy

With higher costs cutting into their bottom line, refiners appear to have decided that this spring is a particularly opportune time to take more of their production offline and retool their plants.

"This is a maintenance season. If you can't make a lot of money, you do a little more repairs," said James Williams, an economist at WTRG Economics, an energy-research firm.

Spring is typically when refiners idle parts of their plants to undertake maintenance. But they don't always cut back so drastically. Last April, when the difference between crude and gasoline prices was narrower, the utilization rate touched 90%. The nation's refinery-utilization rate has remained under 90% since early January.
Still, analysts anticipate this production rate could pick up again if gasoline-price growth accelerates ahead of the key summer-driving season.

"I expect the rate to go up dramatically, probably passing 90% in a month," Williams added.

Already this year, the gap between crude prices and gasoline has narrowed. Near-term crude futures have risen 22% this year, while gasoline prices have gained 20%.

The EIA said last week that gasoline could surpass $4 a gallon in the upcoming driving season in some areas.

-Marketwatch.com


 
RTL
 
Meet the Team

MaryEllen Tribby - Publisher
Jedd Canty - Business Director
Rick Pendergraft- Managing Editor
Jon Herring - Editor
Nicole Reynolds - Marketing

Analysts / Editorial Contributors
Michael Masterson
Charles Delvalle
Andrew M. Gordon
Dr. Russell Mcdougal D.D.S.

 

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