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| Leeb's Market Forecast | |
| April 24, 2008 | |
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| Dear Investor, Leeb ETF Trader Update Market Recap: The market action this earnings season has been encouraging. The decline in earnings, much feared by the market participants, was relatively moderate and came mostly from the sectors where it was expected. The S&P 500, while still trading below 1400, is putting on series of higher lows, and the action in the Nasdaq is definitely encouraging. Tech companies derive big portions of their revenues from abroad, for them the strength in emerging markets and the weak dollar both helped. In addition, the economic numbers are not nearly as recessionary as the press makes them out to be, and when Americans, who love to spend, get their rebate checks, they are likely to further support the economy by hitting the malls. How long the lows put in by the S&P 500 on March 17th will hold will be determined by the economic data and further developments in the credit markets. So far this year, many sectors, including the homebuilders had been able to shrug off bad news. The real unknown remains oil, which yesterday set a trading record of $119.90/bbl. In the slowing economy commodity prices should weaken substantially - and we don't see that. Oil, the most important commodity, has done just the opposite, hitting a series of record highs even as the markets were concerned about slowing economic growth in the first quarter. Of course, that the rise in the price of crude oil isn't only a result of the weaker dollar. The oil price will be relatively stable in euros, which has not been the case this year. While oil it is up 27.7 percent in dollar terms, it is also up whopping 17.2 percent in euro terms this year. The real reason is that last month, for the first time in history, emerging economies consumed more oil than developed economies. At the same time both Saudi and Russian oil production seems to have peaked. While the Russians and the Saudis do have oil, it is either located in the frozen tundra (in the case of Russia)or it is in the heavy sulfur difficult to refine kind (in the case of Saudi Arabia). It does not appear that either country can raise production meaningfully in the short term, especially when it comes to light sweet crude, the most important grade of oil. The record price in oil is being set at a time when oil consumption seasonally rises. A pickup in economic activity along with tight supply in the oil market becomes the wild card as the $120 level was thought to be impossible just a month or two ago. It appears to us that $5/gallon in gasoline is not too far-fetched a prognosis this summer. Until Next Time,
Your ETF Trader Team Advertisement Who says real estate is in a slump? Housing prices may have declined in recent months. But you can still make a lot of money in real estate these days. Let me show you how ... For one thing, houses have become more affordable than they have been for a long time. And with interest rates low, the next few months look like a great opportunity to snap up bargains in real estate. Even better ... there are ways you can make some very big, very fast profits from the rebound in the housing industry without ever owning a piece of land, and for a much smaller investment upfront. How big? How fast? How about a 48% return in just 2 days! That's what participants in Leeb's ETF Trader program made in the beginning of this month from the bounce in the homebuilder stocks. And that's just the beginning. Many more great short-term trading opportunities could arise in the next few months as the recovery in the housing industry catches most investors completely by surprise. Let us show you how to multiply your short-term profits from housing and other fast rising sectors. We'll give you all the instructions as to how and when place your trades. The only things you need are the willingness to act and a commitment to only use this program for the speculative part of your portfolio. Best of all: as a TCI subscriber, you can try out this program right now for a discount of $2,000 off the regular rate -- and enjoy a 60-day moneyback guarantee if you change your mind. What could be better than that? Just click on this link ... Leeb's ETF Trader ------------------------------------- Leeb Aggressive Trader Update Market Recap: Having set one record after another, oil yesterday flirted with $120 a barrel. And while a healthy correction is overdue from a technical standpoint, oil could possibly head as high as $125 in the short-term. Although we've been predicting this would happen for a long time, we'd be lying if we said we weren't nervous here. Prices are now up nearly 80 percent on a year-over-year basis and up more than 90 percent from their 12-month lows. Crude gains of this magnitude could cause the already weak economy to stall. That, in turn, would make it difficult for stocks to advance in any meaningful way. Our short-term stock market timing models remain bullish, so we'll give the current rally the benefit of the doubt. However, we're also near the top of the trading range that stocks have been locked in for the last four months. To make any real headway going forward stocks will have to first successfully penetrate the 1400 level on the S&P 500, which won't be easy. Two weeks ago this Friday, the market was lamenting General Electric's rare earnings miss. Since then, quite a few companies have reported their first-quarter results and on balance the numbers have been quite good. If profits continue to come in on or ahead of estimates it would go a long way in carrying the major market indices higher. The Federal Reserve's policy setting arm is meeting again next week, and a quarter point rate cut by Bernanke & Co. is baked into the market. More important will be the comments the Fed offers at the end of that meeting, which could also set the tone for the stock and bond markets. That said, we don't expect a deviation from the language the central bankers used following their recent get-together's. Making good money in this market will require that we stay nimble, using both long and short positions. We view what we do in this service as more "position" trading rather than "day" trading since short-term trading is difficult enough by itself. Attempting to do it on a daily--get in, get out--basis is something few professional successfully pull off. And it's certainly not a viable approach for a publication, even one such as ours where trade recommendations can be sent out at a moment's notice. Still, the past week proved to be a good time to scalp a few very quick profits. Until Next Time,
Your Aggressive Trader Team Advertisement How to make money staying out of stocks -- mainly. In volatile markets, here's how you can make better returns picking your entry points carefully and taking profits as they come... Micron Technology (MU) is a semiconductor maker whose products appear in a wide range of consumer electronics. On April 2, we took advantage of the stock trading at a historically low price/book ratio. The stock has also been in the process of rebounding from a 52-week low - and it was supposed to report its quarterly results. Plus, there had been some positive news for the industry as a whole. Now, if this had been 1998, we might have bought this stock and held it for a year or more. But with today's uncertainty, we would rather take profits as they come. So 14 days later, when the stock was up nearly 11% above our entry price, we were quite happy to sell -- instantly eliminating any risk that the price would pull back. Another example was our recent trade on Charles Schwab (SCHW). Schwab had limited exposure to the subprime meltdown and credit crisis, but its share price had been pulled down along with the entire financial industry. We expected that when the company announced good earnings there would be a rebound in the shares. So we bought the stock right before the earnings announcement, and sold it the next day for a profit of over 8% -- which is a great return considering our market risk lasted less than 24 hours. To get in on trades like these, check out Leeb's Ground Floor Trader program. It's easy to use. It takes very little time. You don't need much trading experience -- because we give you all the help you need. It doesn't use complicated strategies like options. And it comes with a 60-day moneyback guarantee, so you can essentially test-drive it for free. Just follow this link... Leeb's Ground Floor Trader. ---------------------------------- If you cannot view this mailing click here. This email was sent to LEMMETRY@GMAIL.COM. You are receiving this email because you have requested a free subscription to Dr. Stephen Leeb's Market Forecast. Click here to be removed from this mailing list. Click here to be removed from all of our promotional offers. TCI Enterprises, LLC 500 5th Ave., 57th Floor New York, NY 10110 Disclaimer TCI Enterprises LLC, The Complete Investor, Emerging Investments, Leeb ETF Trader, Leeb IPO Insight, Leeb's Aggressive Trader and their affiliated companies and publications ("TCI" or "Letters" or "Publications") are not registered as a broker dealer or investment advisers with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or any state securities authority. Letters and their information and content providers make no representations or warranties of any kind in connection with the subject matter, performance or the suitability of the information contained in publications for any purpose and are not liable for the timeliness, accuracy, or completeness of the information contained herein. The information contained in publications is provided for general informational purposes, and is not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation familiar with your personal circumstances. Please seek the advice of professionals, as appropriate, regarding the evaluations of any specific security, report, opinion, advice or other content. TCI is not responsible for any trades placed by the recipients of TCI based on the information included therein. There can be no assurance that your portfolio or positions can achieve the indicated performance and therefore, the sample performance information should not be relied upon. Investment recommendations are not intended to be construed to be personalized advice, or recommendations to buy, hold, or sell mentioned securities and readers should consider their personal situation before making any investment. All opinions expressed and information and data provided therein are subject to change without notice. TCI, its officers, directors, employees, and/or associated entities may have positions in and from time to time make purchases, or sales of the securities discussed or mentioned in TCI. TCI shall have no liability for any e-newsletter that is lost, intercepted or not received by you in a timely manner, or at all, for any reason.  |
