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Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Leeb's Market Forecast

  Leeb's Market Forecast
  April 9, 2008

Dear Investor,
Below is the most recent Market Forecast update. To ensure that you continue to receive our timely market emails, please add us to your address book or safe list.

                                       

Leeb’s Ground-Floor Trader Weekly Update

 The market has yet to find a definite bottom, but recent activity is more positive than negative. Although stocks continue to move higher and lower each day based on whatever news is making headlines, we're seeing better relative performance from economically sensitive stocks – such as UPS and FedEx – and from selected financial-services stocks.

 

In addition, it seems that investors are increasingly persuaded that the Fed will do whatever it takes not only to keep the economy afloat but specifically to save the financial sector from ruin.

 

As we've said before, the massive stimulus this entails will only exacerbate the inflationary pressures we're seeing around the world.

 

It's hard to remember that only a couple of years ago, it was widely believed that the U.S. – and most of the developed world – had inflation licked. Even emerging markets were doing a much better job at keeping inflation low; Latin American economies were plagued by double-digit inflation for decades until this century, when a variety of factors helped most get it under control.

 

But now the trend is reversing. In the U.S., money-supply growth is at or near record highs; along with rising commodity prices, that's pushing inflation higher than we've seen in years. And around the world, other countries are watching inflation tick higher as well.

 

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So while we feel good about the U.S. stock market now – it's closer to a bottom than a bear market, and likely will rally over the next six to 12 months – our long-term view that higher inflation is inevitable continues to suggest a significant overweight in the best inflation hedge around: gold and other precious-metals stocks.

 

On the IPO front, we're also seeing some positive signs. When the economy is truly tanking, pulling stocks lower with it, IPO activity dries up altogether. And while we're not seeing the same pace of activity as we witnessed in 2006 and much of 2007 – far from it – companies continue to file for IPOs and several are going public. Note that VISA, the largest IPO in years, has performed extremely well (we took profits on that trade this week).

 

So if you have cash on the sidelines, prepare to put it to work. As the stock market begins to move north decisively, look for a flood of IPOs to come to market.


 Until next week,

 

Your Ground Floor Trader Team

 

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Disclaimer

TCI Enterprises LLC, The Complete Investor, Emerging Investments, Leeb ETF Trader, Leeb IPO Insight, Leeb's Aggressive Trader and their affiliated companies and publications ("TCI" or "Letters" or "Publications") are not registered as a broker dealer or investment advisers with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or any state securities authority. Letters and their information and content providers make no representations or warranties of any kind in connection with the subject matter, performance or the suitability of the information contained in publications for any purpose and are not liable for the timeliness, accuracy, or completeness of the information contained herein. The information contained in publications is provided for general informational purposes, and is not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation familiar with your personal circumstances. Please seek the advice of professionals, as appropriate, regarding the evaluations of any specific security, report, opinion, advice or other content. TCI is not responsible for any trades placed by the recipients of TCI based on the information included therein. There can be no assurance that your portfolio or positions can achieve the indicated performance and therefore, the sample performance information should not be relied upon. Investment recommendations are not intended to be construed to be personalized advice, or recommendations to buy, hold, or sell mentioned securities and readers should consider their personal situation before making any investment. All opinions expressed and information and data provided therein are subject to change without notice. TCI, its officers, directors, employees, and/or associated entities may have positions in and from time to time make purchases, or sales of the securities discussed or mentioned in TCI. TCI shall have no liability for any e-newsletter that is lost, intercepted or not received by you in a timely manner, or at all, for any reason.

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