Leeb's Market Forecast

Leeb's Market Forecast
April 2, 2008

Dear Investor, Below is the most recent Market Forecast update. To ensure that you continue to receive our timely market emails, please add us to your address book or safe list.                                         Leeb’s Ground-Floor Trader Weekly Update The first quarter of 2008 was the worst for U.S. stocks since the third quarter of 2002. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 10%, pummeled by the cascading effects of the credit crisis and the weakening U.S. economy.   Given the ugly headlines – which also included the near-collapse of a Wall Street institution, Bear Stearns – it's no surprise that stocks fell so sharply. However, we're heartened by several factors that suggest what's happened so far in 2008 is a correction rather than a bear market.   First, the Federal Reserve and Congress took bold steps to stimulate the economy. While there's always a time lag between such actions and noticeable positive effects, it's now unlikely that we'll experience a long, deep recession (if we're in a recession at all).   Second, the Fed took several actions to prop up our lending institutions, making it clear that it will not allow a complete meltdown. And foreign investors also stepped in to buy stakes in potentially struggling banks, keeping them afloat despite the credit crisis. Screaming bad headlines always will lead to bad days in the market, but take a wider view and it's clear that our largest banks and other financial institutions will live to lend another day. Advertisement ------------------------------------- Special Live Teleconference for TCI subscribers   "Profiting from Today's Financial Crisis" Join Dr.Stephen Leeb, Dr. Patrick J. DeSouza, and Greg Dorsey , on April 10, 2008, at 5 PM, as they present timely information on some of the unique money-making opportunities available in today's market.  In this 40-minute, live presentation, you'll discover...   What the prospect of a new Presidency will mean for your portfolio. 3 stocks set to outperform during the on-going credit crunch. Trading strategies that help to outperform even in the most volatile of markets. How to protect your savings from the coming inflation wave. Which industries will generate the highest profits for the next five years.     As a special bonus, all attendees will receive a FREE 3-month introductory membership to Leeb's Aggressive Trader.    To register, click on this link ...  Leeb's Aggressive Trader ----------------------------------   Third, while the economy undoubtedly is weakening, there's still no indisputable evidence that we're actually in a recession. Whenever bad news comes out, some good (or at least neutral) news soon counters it. The government's final fourth-quarter GDP report showed 0.6% growth – slow, but positive. First-time unemployment claims have remained in the range of 360,000 to 375,000 a week – indicating a weak labor market, but not a steep recession. Finally, industrial commodity prices remain near historic highs. That simply doesn't happen when the economy is shrinking significantly.   So our outlook remains more positive than average on U.S. stocks; if we have a recession at all, it will be mild and short-lived. And corporate earnings in most sectors will remain positive in 2008 and higher in 2009. Stocks are forward-looking, so today’s rebound is not a big surprise to us. We’ve been expecting it, and have positioned accordingly.   Our focus remains on commodity-related stocks, particularly in the energy and metals. The past couple of weeks have seen a pullback in many commodity prices, as recession worries intensified. We see the lower prices as buying opportunities – especially in precious metals. Inflation remains a perilous threat, and gold and silver are the best inflation hedges.   The first quarter didn't give us a lot of chances to invest in IPOs – partly due to seasonal reasons but also to the correction: with the market falling, companies and underwriters were reluctant to jump in. We look for more chances to profit as the market stabilizes and begins to recover in the coming weeks and months. And we'll continue to highlight attractive low-priced stocks outside of the IPO market.    Until next week,   Nick Lanyi, Editor, Leeb’s Ground Floor Trader   Advertisement -------------------------------------   Leeb's ETF Trader   A Trading Advisory Service For Active Investors   Designed for well-capitalized investors with high risk tolerance seeking  ...   The potentially higher capital gains consistent with short-term trading. A better way to target sectors experiencing above average growth. A way to seek positive returns even in flat or sideways markets.   Leeb's ETF Trader offers investors a sophisticated short-term trading strategy that is easy to follow, requires only a few minutes a week, and features on-going support from a team of professional analysts.   Are You Ready For The Next Level Of Active Investing?                            Leeb’s ETF Trader   -------------------------------------     If you cannot view this mailing click here. 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