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Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Uranium Rebound On The Horizon: What The Election Could Mean For Pharma

Investor's Daily Edge
 
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
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Who's in Your Fave 5 (Resources)? Part 2

By Dr. Russell McDougal

I am a resource apologist, especially in recent days it seems. This is a series of articles designed to explore the fundamentals behind my five favorite resource sectors. Other commodities may succeed spectacularly, but you’re definitely swimming with the current with gold, silver, uranium, oil and natural gas.

Last week we highlighted the monetary metals, gold and silver. I tossed in tar and feathers as two long lost politically essential commodities on the house. Never let it be said you don’t get your money’s worth with your free IDE subscriptions!

You are going to get an in depth look at the uranium market this week and next. Call it “All Things Uranium”.

Uranium is the best hope for long-term cheap and clean energy. You will want to have long-term involvement in it. It is best not to be a momentum investor or trend chaser. Ideally, you invest by taking meaningful positions in tomorrow’s bull market. That translates into selecting stocks that are presently “unloved”. Uranium stocks certainly qualify.

Fortunately, you cannot buy physical uranium. There are more than enough nukes around already. That leaves you with uranium related stocks if you want to participate in this ongoing bull market. We’ll look at uranium in general this week and at uranium stocks next week.

Here’s a look at uranium prices over the last two and half years:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Uranium peaked one year ago around $140 per pound. “Spot” prices presently list uranium at $59 per pound. That is a significant beating. It was not surprising in the least to see the price back off from $140. It was in an unsustainable move. However, I have been surprised to see uranium fall significantly under $70 per pound. We will look into the reality behind that move.

In actuality, uranium does not trade like ordinary commodities. Just because you see a spot price of $59 doesn’t mean it is available in size at that price. It trades almost entirely by private contracts. Private parties have to come to terms for delivery of present or future uranium supplies. There is a massive gap between the current “spot” price and what many uranium experts believe is a more realistic price.

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One of the experts that private parties rely on to properly price uranium is Trade Tech.  Trade Tech has been in the uranium pricing business since 1968.

Here’s a recent chart of Trade Tech’s pricing estimations:

Trade Tech presently has long-term (contract) uranium priced closer to $90 per pound. You can see that they never priced uranium at $140 per pound in their long- term projections. It was clearly a short-term anomaly. Nor have they priced in the present anomaly of $59 per pound. Just because uranium is listed at $59 per pound doesn’t mean you can get a long-term contract at that price. $90 per pound is more like it.

Goldman Sachs has recently predicted that uranium will average $78 per pound in 2008 and $93 per pound in 2009. None of this is priced into the present market! In fact, the current market points in exactly the opposite direction. Your opportunity remains in buying according to fundamentals when few others are interested.

Uranium is undergoing a renaissance as global energy problems continue to play out. It is cheap and clean compared to most other sources of energy. Uranium is over 50 times less expensive than oil based energy at present prices. It has a greater safety record than almost any other sources of energy. There are considerably more deaths and accidents with coal extraction or oil production.

The U.S. and most of the developed world have squandered decades of opportunities to become self-sufficient in clean and renewable energy. Uranium is not “renewable” but it is plentiful (40 times more plentiful than silver in the earth’s surface), given sufficient exploration and mining opportunity. You can bash France willy nilly, but they have long produced 75 percent of their energy via uranium with no major safety issues.

Oil dependency has long been official U.S. policy. We learned nothing from the energy crisis of the 1970's. You can blame that one on the oil lobby and short-sighted politicians.

There are number of alternatives with tremendous potential. Wind, solar, clean coal, tidal, geothermal, etc. They all require extensive development time and we’ve collectively wasted our time margin for error. We’re pretty much stuck with burning things to produce energy for an extended period of time. More and more experts are coming to the conclusion that nuclear power has the highest potential to bring relief to the global energy crunch. Even that will require an extended period of time. We are in a long-term global energy crunch.

Nuclear plants release very little carbon. They stand as a major solution to the “global warming” issue, whatever your opinion on that one. Uranium is plentiful in user friendly jurisdictions like the U.S., Canada and Australia. We don’t have to defend or shoot up the world to acquire it.

There is insufficient primary uranium supply to meet current needs. Only 60 percent comes from present mining operations, with the rest supplied by decommissioned nuclear warheads. Russia is the foremost supplier and they don’t have an endless supply. Neither are there assurances they will continue to supply us when the present contract runs out in 2013.

Uranium mining supply faces an uphill battle. They are not posed to bring forth sufficient supply until 2018 at the earliest. In situ miners (an environmentally friendly extraction process) are running into problems finding enough attractively priced sulfur to bring forth the uranium. Exploration, permitting and mining is an exceedingly long process. There remains tremendous resistance to uranium mining in many jurisdictions. Supply will lag demand for an extended period of time.

Explorers and developers with advanced projects will be the “go to” companies as this bull market resumes its march.

The presidential candidates have weighed in on the nuclear issue. Senator McCain requests 45 new nuclear plants by 2030. Senator Obama has kept the nuclear energy proposal “on the table”. He wants the nuclear waste and storage and recycling issues solved. They need to be solved and can be solved. The will to do so simply needs to be present.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world is planning nuclear reactors on a massive scale. The French based International Energy Agency wants 32 plants built per year around the globe between now and 2050. As many as 145 new nuclear plants are presently on the table between now and 2030. China could build 45, 18 in Russia, 17 in India and 15 in the U.S. The U.S. presently has 104 in use. Europe has 197 plants in use and 13 under construction.

All of these plants will massively add to uranium demand when they come on line. Primary supply is woefully short at the present time. Many producers are severely strained if they don’t receive more than current spot prices. The explorers don’t have the incentive they require at present spot prices.

It all adds up to one big disconnect. Uranium pricing perceptions are too low. The explorers and producers have been decimated in recent market action. Meanwhile, the earth is spinning towards a nuclear energy future.

Summary-

  1. The spot price of uranium is unrealistically low.
  2. Uranium supply/demand fundamentals remain robust.
  3. Uranium is being recognized more and more as a clean and safe solution to the global energy crisis.

We’ll look at the current opportunities in various uranium exploration and mining stocks next week.

Invest resourcefully,

Rusty

P.S.  To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.

Market Watch

Obama's Nasty Effect on
Pharmaceutical Companies

By Charles Delvalle

Some of the most solid opportunities in the stock market are those that happen because of politics. Let’s face it, the government controls billions of dollars and could make or break industries. The effect an Obama presidency could have on Pharmaceutical companies is one you should be well aware of.

As many of you may know, Barack Obama (and democrats in general) is in favor of importing medicines from overseas, allowing the government to negotiate lower prices with drug companies, and increasing the use of generics. Sounds good for us, but not for big pharmaceutical companies.

First, if the use of generics increases, that means big pharmaceutical companies will make less sales. Second, drug companies charge Americans up to two times more for medicine than European or Canadians. If they have to cut those profits in half because the U.S. negotiated lower prices, that means they receive less profits. If they receive fewer profits you can be sure that their stock prices will fall.

So do yourself a favor and stay away from pharmaceutical companies until after November 11.

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The Market Minute

The Dollar Rally… that economists had been talking about for the past two months has all but vanished after the market realized mortgage giants Fannie and Freddie could both need government assistance just to stay in business. The whole thought of the dollar rallying while the U.S. enters one of the worst recessions in the past 100 years was foolish anyway. Expect the dollar to continue plunging to new lows against the Euro and most major currencies as long as interest rates stay where they are today.
 

 
KISS
 
In The Markets
 
 
Last
Change
YTD
Dow 10,962.54 none92.65 -17.36%
Nasdaq 2,215.71 none2.84 -16.46%
S&P 500 1,214.91 none13.39 -17.26%
Gold 975.90 none3.80 17.11%
Silver 18.91 none0.18 28.03%
Oil 138.61 none6.57 44.42%
Nat Gas 11.46 none0.54 53.21%
 
Newsworthy

Brazilians' biggest shopping spree since 2001, fueled by rising wages and credit, is drawing investments to smaller cities as retailers chase consumers outside of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.

Macae, a former fishing village that's now the base for Brazil's offshore oil production, will open its first mall in September, meaning its 169,000 residents won't need to drive three hours south to Rio de Janeiro to shop. The statistics agency will today report sales rose 9.9 percent in May from a year earlier, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 25 economists.

Consumer spending is driving economic growth in some of the poorest corners of Brazil, helping shield the economy from its first decline in exports in two years. CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. the third largest mall operator in the U.S., chose Brazil's 151st-largest city to build its first overseas shopping center as retail sales slump in the U.S.

“This is probably the first time in history we've seen this boom in consumption penetrate so deep into the countryside,” said Alfredo Coutino, senior economist for Latin America at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

-Bloomberg.com

 
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Meet the Team

MaryEllen Tribby - Publisher
Jedd Canty - Business Director
Rick Pendergraft - Managing Editor
Jon Herring - Editor
Nicole Reynolds - Marketing


Analysts / Editorial Contributors
Michael Masterson
Charles Delvalle
Andrew M. Gordon
Dr. Russell Mcdougal D.D.S.

 

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