Whiskey & Gunpowder
The End of Denial — and the Beginning of a Man, this joint is jumpin.' It's 10 o'clock on the first morning of the 2008 Agora Financial Investment Symposium. The general sessions kick off at 1:00 P.M. today. From then on, it's a non-stop freight train of "big picture" economic thought, trend identification, and specific recommendations from some of the biggest minds in money… But right now on the massive conference level at the Fairmont Vancouver Hotel, it's a bustling mish-mosh of registering attendees, arriving speakers, exhibitors fussing over their displays, and early-birds claiming front-row seats in the event's main auditorium (which is complete with four big-screens to "simulcast" the speeches!). The atmosphere at this sold-out event is positively electric. Everyone who's already signed in is comparing notes, talking strategy, and perusing the exhibits that are show-ready. It's game time, and everybody knows it. Me, most of all. Facing a jammed-packed afternoon and night of note-taking, hobnobbing, and writing this dispatch until the wee smalls, I decide I need a few hours to myself before the onset of the glorious chaos of covering the Symposium. God only knows when I'll get another break. I change into shorts and a T-shirt, grab my digital camera, and stroll the 10 blocks or so down to Stanley Park. In 20 short minutes of walking under gray overcast skies in cool low-60s air, I've reached the harbor area, rented a mountain bike, and have begun to pedal my way down to the breathtakingly scenic park. I don't have much time for exploring the myriad of trails in the preserve, so I decide simply to cruise the shoreline perimeter road — about seven or eight miles worth, I'm guessing… But ironically, even though I'm taking a brief refuge in the bosom of nature from talk of money, markets, commodities, resources, energy, booms, busts, and bailouts, I find that I'm still surrounded by the Symposium's core themes as I ride… The Inescapable "Nature" of One of the World's It's surreal, almost. The awesome majesty of the towering cedars, sheer rock walls, and tide-eroded rock formations along the shoreline of the park juxtapose wildly with the equally majestic cranes, elevators, piers, hundred-foot high mounds of unrefined sulfur and other raw commodities, and vast port infrastructure along the opposite North Vancouver shore… The four huge, unladen freight-ships approaching the impressive, 200-ft.-tall span of the Lions Gate Bridge seem almost superimposed on top of the gorgeous, clear, blue-green brackish waters of the Burrard Inlet that teem with fish, aquatic birds — even the occasional seal… These contrasts really hammered home all the reasons why Addison perennially chooses Vancouver for the Symposium. Not only is it a beautiful place that anyone would want to visit, but it's also a thriving, humming commercial juggernaut — the largest-volume exporting port city in North America, in fact. It's also an increasingly Asian-centric city, with 52% of its residents speaking a primary language other than English, among them Mandarin and Cantonese. As you'll see in a video clip in moment, this mirrors several main themes from last year's conference (Rim of Fire — Crisis and Opportunity in the New Asian Era ), as well as some main threads running through this year's View From the Peak event. The Symposium Prophecies, Continued… As always, "Chief" Addison Wiggin started things off. Ironically, one of his first points was similar to one I made yesterday: That the ideas and themes in the annual Symposium — and in other Agora outlets — seem regularly to border on prophecy… His speech reminded us that the Agora Editors who've been marquis speakers from past Vancouver events have consistently predicted major American economic trends — even as the mainstream scoffed at them. He remembers several years ago, when the editor of Strategic Investment dared to predict a $50 barrel price for oil. Since oil was around $30 a barrel at the time, he was lambasted for being "unpatriotic." But who wouldn't kill for $50 oil right now? Similar predictions from various other editors included the impending destruction of the housing market (people laughed then — not now), the infrastructure crises inherent to suburban sprawl, and many other revelations that were years ahead of their time… Those who listened, though — meaning those who've followed these editors and attended the various Agora Financial symposia (or purchased the recordings) — have had the opportunity to profit hugely from the advance warning of these trends. History will prove no different for this year's Symposium, I predict. Wiggin went on to further define the theme of this year's conference: A View from the Peak — Seeking profits in a Time of Risk and Scarcity. Of course, the most obvious "peak" facing us all is oil. But "Chief" Wiggin echoed his whole stable of editors to point out current or recent peaks in many less obvious — but no less potentially profitable — economic realms. In his presentation, Addison pinpointed peaks in broader universes like commodities and resources, plus more specific segments like infrastructure and water. But that wasn't all. He also focused on some disturbing "peaks" to an America-centric quasi-redneck like myself: Peak dollars, peak credit, and the scariest of all, peak Western influence… Addison argued, quite rightly, that the end of the era of America's dominance in shaping world markets with its demand is upon us — or already past. He's right. Whether I like it or not, the smart money's going offshore more and more often these days. It's time to adjust what I do with my money accordingly. Maybe it is for you, too. But I'll tell you something: Had I not attended the Symposium in 2007 and 2008 (and had the CDs of last year's event to keep me on track), I would have lived in denial of this fact for at least a few more years… And if you're in anywhere near the same boat as me, you really ought to listen to what these incredible minds have to say about what's coming and how you can profit from it — at your convenience, of course, on your choice of CDs or MP3s (details on how to get them at as much as 50% off below). The Coming Amerika? Next up was the inimitable Bill Bonner. Having been a "cousin" to the Agora family for more than six years now, I've heard Bill speak about a dozen times on various topics. And every time, I come away from it satisfied, entertained, and educated. Also, no one, but no one, throws the conversational "boomerang" farther afield, while still managing to reign it back in and relate it to his main point than the brilliant Bonner… The opening half of his remarks (the second half comes Friday) at this year's Symposium were true to form. He led off saying to the crowd: "Finally, I get a chance to say 'I told you so!'" Those of you who've read and followed Bill for years know exactly what he's talking about: As co-author of the New York Times bestselling business title Financial Reckoning Day — and founder and prolific contributor to the Daily Reckoning e-Letter — Bonner has been predicting varying degrees of collapse in the American economy and fiscal system for years… He opened his speech this year with ambitious hurling of the boomerang: He informed us of beleaguered Zimbabwe's issuance of a $100 billion currency note — that's only worth about 80¢ U.S. How is this relevant to American money and investing? Bear with… As it turns out, the root of Zimbabwe's rapid circling of the fiscal drain is actually nationalization. Increasingly over the last decade or so, Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe's administration has been seizing control of private industry (especially land-holding enterprises like agriculture and safari excursions). Consequently, these sectors have become far less effective and free-market competitive. The result: Rampant inflation, increasing bureaucratic regulation, and ensuing economic paralysis. Again, what's this have to do with you and me and our money? Here comes that boomerang… Citing examples from as far back as the FDR administration (and many since), Bonner paints a disturbing — check that: outraging — picture of the rapid modern trend toward nationalization in America: From government-entangled mortgage companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and health care entities like Medicare and Medicaid to what may soon include government-run banks, airlines, auto-makers, and more… In other words, this "biggest-ever seizure of industry by government" (Bonner's words) translates into (my words): The inexorable transformation from a capitalist America to a neo-Socialist one. Of course, what you're reading here is about 25% of what Bonner actually said — and written with nowhere near the skill and panache with which he delivers it. To really get everything you can out of it — both in terms of entertainment and prescient soothsaying you can apply to your bottom line life — you really have to hear Bill's remarks for yourself… But thankfully, this isn't hard to do (skip down to the end to do it now). Right now, you can purchase advance CD or MP3 copies of all the profound, prescient, and profitable remarks from Wiggin, Bonner, all your favorite Agorans, and many other contrarian financial wizards from this year's Symposium — for as much as 50% OFF. Keep reading… Snippets from the Soothsayers Leading Those Who'll "Listen" to Riches There's so much ground to cover from even this somewhat abbreviated first day that I could never do it justice with the 2000 words or so they give me to write these dispatches in. Already, I'm shortchanging brilliant day-one speakers (and perennial Symposium favorites):
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