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Thursday, July 31, 2008

Facts About Gold And Money: Where Do We Go From Here?

Investor's Daily Edge
 
Thursday, July 31, 2008
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Notes on a Fragmented History
of Money and Gold

By Lynn Carpenter

With the rise in the price of gold, it’s not surprising that those who revere gold as money are saying, “I told you so.” Gold has a long history as a trade medium, and an interesting one. One of the neatest books I read this past year was a 19th century banking manual that had a chapter on how bankers should handle gold coins. While we think of the metal as fairly sturdy, portable and easy to use, according to a banker with lots of experience, handling gold coins was a pain in the neck.

For instance, bags had to be tied for quick opening, because every bag taken in by a bank had to be opened for counting and weighing. The weight had to come within a half percent of expectations for the quantity of coins in the bag or the poor bank clerk had to search the whole bag, piece by piece, to find which coins were light. Also, tying a bag too tightly increased the wear on the coins.

As for whether our dollars, euros, francs and pounds should be backed by gold, it’s an interesting proposition.

I keep imagining gold-rich countries like Russia nationalizing mines and creating instant wealth and power to lord over us.  Then again, that’s the story of oil. It was also the story of Spain in the 16th century. At least we have a fair amount of gold here.

But I’ll leave the money angle for another time. Over the years in reading about gold, I’ve collected some interesting tidbits. So in the spirit of a Harper’s list, here are a few of the good ones, plus some other money history trivia.

  • Gold’s abundance: relatively rare. Of the 92 natural elements in the earth’s crust, gold ranks 58th in rarity.
  • But it’s not exceedingly rare. Every state in the U.S. has some gold deposits.
  • The word pecuniary comes from pecunia in Latin, referring to the pecus—cattle—that were used literally and as a unit of value in the Roman republic (800 B.C.) from its earliest days.
  • The first known metallic money outside China originated with Phoenician traders in 650 B.C. Made in Lydia, now part of Turkey, these were bronze pieces, sometimes shaped like cattle. It’s unknown whether the first tokens were used for trade or religion, had value themselves or were strictly tools for accounting. Gold coins from Lydia were created about a century later by King Croesus.
  • The “talent” that the master paid his servants in the well-known Biblical story was a bronze ingot.
  • The earliest Roman pieces were lumps of bronze called "aes rude." Marks for weight were added about 300 B.C. These were divided into different valuations, with the “as,” which weighed about ¾ of a pound, serving as the basic monetary unit.  
  • Because of trade with the Greeks, Romans adopted silver coins about 269 B.C. Silver and bronze were their main monetary metals for the next 100 years.
  • The Punic Wars had decreased the value of the as and it depreciated again, in or about 130 B.C., to approximately 16 per denarius. The as and the denarius (the silver coin) remained the most common coins and were used throughout the remainder of Roman civilization. Soldiers were paid in denarius.
  • Gold coins in Rome were largely commemorative and meant for higher-level trade, annual salaries and tributes to emperors on important occasions. The first Roman gold coin, the aureus, was introduced in the Second Punic War against Carthage, 216-202 B.C.

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  • If the U.S.’s pile of gold in Ft. Knox (147.3 million troy ounces according to the U.S. Mint) were to back the U.S. M1 money supply on an even basis, the gold would be worth $940 an ounce. Gives one pause, doesn’t it?
  • When gold is legal tender, governments try to regulate or manipulate its value, and that’s always a difficult... when Roosevelt raised gold from $20.67 to $35 in 1934, it immediately devalued the dollar by 40%.
  • But from 1786 to 1933, the U.S. government only allowed the price of gold to rise from $17.92 to $20.67. A 15% increase in the official price of gold in 141 years. In the same span, U.S. GDP grew about 28,000%.
  • Among the worst debasers of gold coins: Henry VIII, Diocletian and Nero. Debasement is a hidden tax. Henry added base metals to coins. Nero reduced silver content and made the gold coins smaller.
  • In 1542, Francisco Pizarro took more gold from the Inca in a week than European miners produced in a year. The conquistadors brought so much gold from the New World to Europe that they increased supply by 500% and started the first gold-induced inflation. Other inflations caused by sudden gold supplies happened during the U.S. and Australian gold rushes in the 19th century.
  • Despite gold’s long history as currency, only a small portion of domestic commerce was ever conducted in gold before modern times. After the Norman Conquest in England, peasants paid their feudal taxes to their lord in terms of labor, usually three days a year. In feudal Japan, peasants paid in rice and labor. They often owed as much as two-thirds of their crops and families starved in order to pay the tax.
  • In the early U.S., coinage was so scarce, taxes were often paid in commodities such as wheat and cattle (Vermont) or tobacco (Maryland and Virginia). This caused a problem it took gold to solve. Farmers raised too much tobacco and caused tobacco devaluation. Virginia regulated production to protect tobacco’s monetary value, but it was a failure.
  • Other commodities valued for commerce and tax transactions in the American colonies included cereal, corn, rice, beaver skins, wampum (shells) and milk pails.
  • Colonials didn’t like paying taxes either. They tended to send their worst produce to the tax collector.
  • Much of the specie (gold and silver coins) used in Colonial America came from Spain. The piece of eight was the forerunner of the dollar. The coins were earned in trade when barter did not suffice, but colonists were inclined to send them home to England and France to pay bills. To thwart that drain, Colonial legislatures overvalued the gold coins hoping colonists would keep them in the colonies where they were worth more than their value in Europe.
  • When used in trade, gold coins wear out in about 18 years.
  • It is believed that most of the gold coins used in trade between the U.S. and the West Indies before the U.S. Revolution were 15-20% “light.” Crooks and traders put coins in a coarse bag and shook them to create gold dust—called sweating the coins. They traded the coins at full value and made money on the dust.
  • For years, banks sent gold coins to England from the U.S. and back again to maintain trade balances. In each trip, $178 in value from every $1 million in gold shipped, rubbed off during transport, according to an 1894 book on banking practices.
  • The value of gold to silver has fluctuated widely. Among the ancient Greeks, Herodotus gives a 13 (silver) to 1 (gold) ratio. Plato says 12:1. For the Romans, Levy claims 10:1 and Julius Cesar once put it at 9:1. In the United States, the value has varied from 14:1 to 1.7:1.

 

Lynn Carpenter  

P.S.  To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.

[Ed. Note: For more companies that can protect and grow your wealth, check out Lynn Carpenter's Rising Tide Letter. She recommends companies that consistently deliver outstanding results. Click here for more info.]

Market Watch

Where Gold Is Headed--$1,000 or $750?

By Lynn Carpenter

Long stuff up there on gold, so I’ll make this short. Where’s the shiny stuff going? Back in January, I told my Rising Tide readers that the Streetraks Gold ETF (GLD) was a smart buy. It’s certainly hit new highs since… and I think gold is an asset with long-term value for a bit of money.

But…

I don’t see it flying to the moon in the next week or two. In fact, it’s at a critical point just looking at the chart. The price of the GLD fund is exactly 1/10th the latest price of gold, so when GLD is at $90, it represents gold at $900, for instance.

Fundamental reasons such as scarcity are another matter. And there’s no telling if something disruptive in the news will notch up fears about the dollar or other assets, which favors gold. But technically, gold has settled into a range lately. Just for fun, what does a simple reading of a chart’s trend lines tell us?

The danger now is that its recent weakness grows and GLD falls through the short-term bull support line (the blue one from August 07 to present). If it does, its next target is down to $75. That translates to $750 gold. But the longer GLD stays above $90, the stronger it gets.

Meanwhile, advancing will take some work because bear resistance is building up overhead. That pushes to keep the price down. But if GLD does break through that mean green line, we could see fireworks again.

Here’s what to watch for: If GLD hits $97, closes above it and follows through immediately to stay above that level, we’re in for another run. Turn in your Confederate dollars and buy gold.



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The Market Minute

We’re Not Alone...In London, British Gas raised its energy prices by 35% and a new study predicts housing prices will fall another 20% over the next two years. If so, nearly 2 million UK homeowners will carry mortgages with negative equity. Let's hope they can heat them. About 70,000 are already upside down as home prices fall. The U.S, and Britain have always had so much in common.

 
RTL
 
In The Markets
 
Last
Change
YTD
Dow 11,583.69 none186.13 -12.67%
Nasdaq 2,329.72 none10.10 -12.16%
S&P 500 1,284.26 none21.07 -12.54%
Gold 907.10 none10.50 8.86%
Silver 17.48 none0.17 18.35%
Oil 127.03 none4.84 32.35%
Nat Gas 9.32 none0.27 24.60%
 
Newsworthy

Hot dogs won’t kill you after all, nor will saturated fat it seems. And you can run the AC in your car without destroying the planet…

“No matter how guilty you feel about your carbon footprint, you don’t have to swelter on the highway to the beach. After doing tests at 65 miles per hour, the mileage experts at edmunds.com report that the aerodynamic drag from opening the windows cancels out any fuel savings from turning off the air-conditioner.”

These are two of the 10 things you don’t have to worry about anymore according to The New York Times (July 29). Other things not to worry about include getting cancer from cell phones, taking plastic instead of paper at the grocery store, plastic baby bottles and shark attacks.

 
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Analysts / Editorial Contributors
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