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Wednesday, July 2, 2008

The Junior Prom Of Investing; Dividend Cuts As Investment Targets?

Investor's Daily Edge
 
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
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Are You Going to the Junior (Gold) Prom?

By Dr. Russell McDougal

Nobody likes the junior mining companies these days. Gold, silver and commodity prices in general are all soaring. Yet the tiny explorers can hardly catch a bid. How long can this persist?

Truth be told, the juniors are set up to throw quite a party. Think back to your most memorable high school “extra curricular activity” and let’s get ready for a replay. Toss in financial rewards as a bonus.

Junior explorers are tiny, efficient and mobile. They do the heavy lifting in global resource discoveries. Especially the Canadian companies. If you’re Canadian and have a geological background you likely also have wanderlust. Have drill- will travel!

On the other hand, the larger “senior” gold mining companies have a long standing and clear cut problem. They produce gold each and every year and thereby chew through their quantified reserves.  These reserves must be replaced or the company’s reason for existence goes away.

The seniors are not the ones who find the largest percentage of gold deposits. They have been maintaining or growing reserves through mergers and acquisitions for several years now. When Newmont Mining (NEM) acquired Franco Nevada in 2002 there were zero new ounces of gold reserves created. One company simply went away and a larger company was created. The same thing happened when Barrick Gold (ABX) took out Placer Dome in 2006.

The larger gold companies do most everything through committee. They have a level of bureaucracy that isn’t present in the small companies. The juniors can act quicker in staking a property or deal making. Qualified geological personnel are in short supply due to the decades-long resource bear market of yesteryear. When a Barrick Gold geologist makes a discovery he gets a big thank you and maybe a pretty plaque. When a geologist with a tiny micro-cap explorer makes one he’s found the mother lode. He has tremendous financial incentive to succeed through company stock, options or warrants.

High quality geological talent has moved to the juniors.

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I’ve been aware of this game of “reserve replacement” problems for over 10 years. The seniors need gold and they will inevitably have to come looking in the direction of smaller companies with proven goods.

The seniors don’t like to pay up, but they inevitably do. Goldcorp (GG) bought out junior Virginia Gold’s Eleonor gold discovery in a deal valued at $475 million. Those of us who bought shares early saw returns of $50 to $100 for every initial dollar invested. If you find it, they will pay. So, how are the companies doing that are designated the most significant gold finders?

You wouldn’t know it by looking at this chart that gold, silver, oil and most commodities are up significantly in the last year and a half. The shares usually show a high degree of correlation to gold prices but they are actually down at the present time. This CDNX index is the best overall representative of the Canadian junior explorers. There is a total disconnect between commodity prices and explorer prices.

Junior stocks have hit the skids over the last 12 months. When the relative strength index (RSI on the above chart) has gone near or below 50 this decade a rally has ensued. We’re there again. The juniors are oversold.

Stocks like the old Virginia Gold are best bought during such times of overall sector weakness. They are on sale.  If Buffet advocates buying “straw hats in winter” we can correspondingly buy Canadian parkas in summer.

Yes, the biggest mining companies must replace their reserves. They will be looking to quality junior projects with proven ounces in the ground. The juniors are set to throw a monster ball.

Party Resourcefully,

Rusty

P.S.  To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.

Market Watch

These are the Perfect Company's to Short

By Charles Delvalle

One of the simplest ways to make money in the stock market is to find a pattern with a history of repeating, and then exploit that pattern for profits. Today, I’d like to share with you a pattern that proves to be one of the best ways to make money in a down market.

All you have to do is look for companies that recently cut or eliminated their dividend payment, and short them.

The reason why stocks drop is straightforward.

Investors view a company’s dividend payment as a barometer of their fundamental health. If a dividend is reduced or eliminated, it’s almost always because the company is not only making less money, but should continue to make less money down the road.

Had you shorted Ford after they first cut their dividend payments in September of 2006, you’d be up 41%. You would have been up over 70% if you had shorted National City back in January when they cut their dividend. Clearly, this pattern has been happening for years.

So if you’re looking for a good company to short in this bear market, just look for one that recently cut its dividend payment.

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The Market Minute

The Starbucks plan… means that 600 underperforming stores will be shut down just this year. What a complete 180. From being one of those companies that was spreading like wildfire, now they are closing down stores and taking a $348 million charge. As soon as they made the announcement on Wednesday, trading was halted . Yet in after hours, shares were up five percent. If they didn’t go down on this news, chances are they’ll move even higher over the next few days.
 

 
KISS
 
In The Markets
 
Last
Change
YTD
Dow 11,382.26 none32.25 -14.19%
Nasdaq 2,304.97 none11.99 -13.09%
S&P 500 1,284.91 none4.91 -12.49%
Gold 938.00 none13.10 12.56%
Silver 18.09 none0.69 22.48%
Oil 141.23 none1.23 47.15%
Nat Gas 13.53 none0.15 80.88%
 
Newsworthy

Corn fell the maximum permitted by the Chicago Board of Trade and wheat dropped the most in 13 weeks after the government said U.S. farmers planted more of both crops than previously expected.

Corn was sowed on 87.3 million acres, up 1.9 percent from a March forecast, and spring-wheat planting jumped 6.8 percent to 14.197 million acres, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report today. Corn prices doubled in the past year to a record on June 27, and wheat jumped 13 percent this month after reaching a record in February. The U.S. is the world's largest corn grower and wheat exporter.

``When prices get that high, you find every nook and cranny to plant on,'' said Darrell Holaday, the president of Advanced Market Concepts in Manhattan, Kansas. ``This report sets a negative tone for the week.''

Corn futures for December delivery fell the CBOT's 30-cent limit, or 3.8 percent, to $7.57 a bushel, the biggest percentage drop since Jan. 23. The most-active contract reached a record $7.9925 on June 27. Corn is still up 26 percent this month, the biggest monthly gain since June 1988.

 

 
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Meet the Team

MaryEllen Tribby - Publisher
Jedd Canty - Business Director
Rick Pendergraft - Managing Editor
Jon Herring - Editor
Nicole Reynolds - Marketing


Analysts / Editorial Contributors
Michael Masterson
Charles Delvalle
Andrew M. Gordon
Dr. Russell Mcdougal D.D.S.

 

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