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Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Investing Bliss; Oil and Gas Still Frustrate People

INVESTOR'S DAILY EDGE UNPLUGGED
ABOUT IDE FAQS ARCHIVES PRODUCTS CONTACT US WHITELIST US  
IN THIS ISSUE  
My Problem with the Big Three
Investing Bliss
MEET THE TEAM
  MaryEllen Tribby
Publisher
  Jedd Canty
Business Director
  Nicole Reynolds
Marketing
  Jon Herring
Editor
ANALIST/EDITORIAL CONTRIBUTORS
  Charles Delvalle
  Andrew M. Gordon
  Dr. Russell McDougal
D.D.S.
  Rick Pendergraft
  Lynn Carpenter
  Andy Carpenter
  Christian Hill
   
Tuesday, July 8, 2008

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  My Problem with the Big Three  
 

 

Charles Devalle

Over the past month and a half, I’ve been looking very seriously into motorcycles. The reason why is simple – I’d get 50-60 miles to the gallon.

To tell you the truth, I’m a little upset about this whole thing. Not because I wouldn’t enjoy the summer breeze blowing through my long, wavy hair while I ride a motorcycle, but because I have to actually think about ways to cut my gas bill.

What really ticks me off about this whole deal is that this all could’ve been solved if Detroit would’ve learned their lesson back in the 70’s. But you should know how I feel because I wrote about it two weeks back. And it looks like I’m not alone either. Charlie said…

Hey Charles, I love your 'right on' stuff. Lordy, if only the rest of the financial crowd could be as astute as you!

Then Carol said…

You are dead on with this one.  Americans have to wake up to the future and invest/develop alternative sources for all kinds of energy.  We blew it in the 70s, much to my chagrin.  Write your representatives at all levels of government and insist that they stop trying to figure out how to get more fossil fuel -OIL.  Corn ethanol is not the answer either!  Stimulus/incentives must be provided and standards established by governments to divert this economy busting energy train wreck.

And I really made an impression on Jack…

Charles, nice to read a column from a greenie, tempered with common sense, as for drilling for more oil, let’s keep it simple, “better now than never".

Yes – I have to admit I got a lot of slack from my ‘greener’ friends when I said that I was in favor of more drilling while at the same time being in favor of green energy. So many people think that if you’re for alternative energy then you can’t be for oil drilling. It’s almost like drilling is Coke and alternative energy is Pepsi.

I have something to admit… I drink both.

As much as I love nice comments, I also love the comments that force me to debate, such as this one from Joe…

I find you to be a well-spoken and intelligent man.  But the tone of this article makes me think that you missed a very important point here.  The "Big Three" offer lots of models.  They also monitor the market to see what sells best.  The reason they sold so many SUVs is that we bought so many.

I'm not saying that they've covered themselves in glory with well spent R&D dollars that have created impressively efficient vehicles.  If what we've seen represents their best efforts in that area, then they're hopelessly incompetent and will eventually go out of business. 

I'm just saying that it seemed you were blaming the automakers for SUV sales.  The blame should go to the SUV drivers.  Most of them could find a mini-van that would exceed all demands they've ever placed on their SUV (except the cool factor).  I'm just for giving credit where credit is due. Keep up the great writing.  I really enjoy your stuff.

You are right on with this one, Joe. The big three made big dinosaur sized SUVs because that’s what Americans wanted. We all know what happened to the dinosaurs, though.

And here’s another problem with the big three. How long have gas prices been moving higher? Eight years now. It took eight years for the big three to respond to higher gas prices. They – for some stupid reason – failed to foresee future demand for more fuel-efficient cars.

It took them until just a few months ago to start speeding up production of cars better able to meet the emerging demand for fuel-efficient cars.

GM is releasing a new mini-car. Release date? 2012. And here’s the worst part – GM had two other designs for mini-cars. And they WON’T be bringing them into production (at least, they haven’t said they will).

I think somebody needs to light a fire under GM’s A$$ and get production moving even faster on these small cars considering they ARE the future.

And then there’s Ford. Sure, they are transitioning to a global platform. That means we get sexy Fords from Europe (I’m serious, they really are sexy!) shipped over to the states. While Ford is bringing these cars to market faster than GM, it’s still going to take until 2010 for the first one to hit our shores.

And Chrysler… wait they aren’t bankrupt yet? Maybe next month. Either way, 70 percent of their sales relied on dinosaurs, I mean, SUVs. And if you take a look at every other car they make – they look like crap and are way behind the design/functionality/feature curve.

Seriously, the interior plastics they use are cheap, hard, and don’t give you the impression of quality. Then they have all sorts of little spacing issues that you’d never find inside a Honda/Toyota/Hyundai.

It took Hyundai two years to update their interiors. Now they have one of the nicest interiors you can find inside a car. Why hasn’t Chrysler done the same?

Ahh, American ingenuity at work.

Here’s why I think the big three are such dolts.

In my time of researching the stock market, I’ve always found that any company whose sales rely too much on any one type of product is bound to get hit hard. If you’re a company that wants to make it past ten years, you diversify your revenue stream. That way should one product stop selling, you have a whole slew of other products that can make money.

The big three had over 60 percent of their sales coming from SUVs and trucks. And they knew the entire time that if gas prices really shot up, sales would come crashing down.

Yet knowing this, did they have any backup plan? Not at all. Did they think “Gee, maybe we should make a couple of fuel efficient cars just in case we get a repeat of the 70’s”?

If they had, we’d have already seen some nice small cars from them at this point, and they’d be making money (or at the very least, not losing as much). Instead, what small cars they have, they can’t make enough. Meanwhile, their fundamental situation just gets uglier and uglier.

More brands being sold… more layoffs yet to be announced… and no imminent sign of profitability for the big three.

What’s the best way to avoid it all? Honda Motors (HMC). They rely the least on truck sales, have the best selling econobox (the Civic), have a revamped Accord, and plan to release more hybrid and electric vehicles.

In this downturn, Honda will outperform Toyota. You can take my word on that.

To your success,

Charles

P.S.  To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.

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  Investing Bliss  
 

Andy Carpenter

 

Got a note last week from a man named Bill, who said, though he couldn’t express a love for what he considers my “political slant,” he does find it refreshing that “someone in the stock market arena actually has a liberalized view of the world, and is not purely driven by the corporate bottom line (war is profitable for a few).”

Bill also remembered that the smart and beautiful Lynn Carpenter is my wife. He noted, “You two are really entertaining in your writings and I can imagine that your home discourse would be the same.”

Well Bill, Lynn and I aren’t Nick and Nora Charles – and our young husky, Suka, would kick the heck out of their pint-sized pooch Asta – but you are right, a home populated by two professional writers is seldom dull.

By nature, Lynn is a touch on the quiet side, though that is more a product of her profound hearing loss than her true nature.

She thinks learning classical wood working techniques at The North Bennet Street School (the Harvard of fine woodworking) is about the coolest thing in the world.

It’s this mathematical “how stuff works” approach that makes Lynn a great options trader, as her The Optionist subscribers could attest.

I, of course, am perceived as more bombastic. Though a true Yankee and pretty darned reserved, at 6’3” and 277 pounds I suffer a bit of the big-man’s (ex-jock) curse in that people expect me to be gregarious and not very intellectual.

For me, the coolest thing in the world is pursuing a degree at Harvard (the North Bennet Street School of universities).

Access to geniuses such a P.K. Bol and Philip Kuhn, gives me a richer understanding of this global investing thing for which it is alleged that I am notable.

On the personal side, Lynn is a hardcore post-bop jazz nut… some high-tech headphones let her enjoy Rollins, Monk and Shorter.

I am a rocker… making Lynn remove her bionic hearing aids means I can blast the likes of Phish, Moe., Govt. Mule and Jason Ricci.

Our pets are also unusually loyal to us.

The late great Greydon (a cat) spent much of his adult life sleeping on a corner of my desk as I wrote.

Suka, the aforementioned husky, sleeps under Lynn’s desk all day long as she writes and researches.

And, yes, when it comes to politics, Lynn and I are fairly closely aligned.

Lynn thinks both of this year’s presidential candidates are lying, flip-flopping, opportunistic bastards. Right now, she intends to vote for neither.

While, I think both of this year’s presidential candidates are lying, flip-flopping, opportunistic bastards. But, I intend to hold my nose and vote for one – either because I believe one’s lies on trade with Asia or because I believe the other’s lies about the domestic economy.

Of course, Lynn and I are in total agreement about the big stuff.

Stuff like how similar writing and investing are. That both require years of practice, a dissatisfaction with even the best results and a commitment to mastering the nuances that really make a difference in your ability to make money or communicate effectively.

Oh yeah, Lynn and I do have our disagreements.

She’s a diehard Baltimore Orioles fan.

I am genetically predisposed to root for the Boston Red Sox.

That makes us a mixed marriage.

Viva la difference,

Andy

P.S.  To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.

INTERNAL ENDORSEMENT

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