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Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Commodities Aren't Done Just Yet: Two Favorites With Room To Soar

Investor's Daily Edge
 
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
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Who's in Your Fave 5 (Commodities)?

By Dr. Russell McDougal

You know I’m a resource guy. We’re in a long-term commodity bull market that will be one for the ages.  Periodically, it’s ideal to take an inventory of exactly how we stand with particular sectors. Which are my favorites at the present time?

Let’s start with two “bonus” commodities. These are so special that all others pale in comparison.

These two beloved resources have been in a long and devastating bear market. In fact, they have seen little use for well over 200 years. This, in spite of the fact they are needed now more than ever. They are greatly appreciated by the masses of people yet abhorred by the political and financial crowd. You will never hear these mentioned on Bubblevision or Cramer.

Each of these forgotten substances has extraordinary uses in its own right. The real magic appears, however, when they are used in conjunction with each other. Ancient formulas have recently been unearthed that describe how best to combine them. Shockingly, when used together they can truly solve most of the ailments of modern day USA. Application of these ancient remedies will soon bring about honest money and honest markets once again. Our politicians will clean up their act and represent the Constitution and the citizens who put them in office. Lobbyists will be scrambling for cover. CEOs will be accountable to shareholders. A new syndicated show will soon debut…Name that Perpwalker! Too good to be true you think? You know by now I simply go where the truth leads.

Trump-like fortunes are set to be made for those that invest in these precious substances on a timely basis (or is Trump bankrupt again?). You’ll kick yourself for not thinking of this panacea yourself. While I’m dead set against anyone being lynched or maimed, I heartily recommend you…Go Long Tar and Feathers!

When this thing breaks, there’ll be an empty tar pit in California and nekked birds from coast to coast. An extreme shortage is on the horizon. It’s not going to be easy to fully cover the Pennsylvania Avenue and Wall Street bozos with their deserved attire. Maybe these newly fowled creatures will track some hot and sticky feathers into the nests of those who pull their strings.

The serious part of this editorial is finished now. Let’s now look at some other key commodities.

Silver-

Silver has had a really nice run the last five years. It is currently near $18 for good reason. It was suppressed for decades, but now the jig is up. I long ago lent unsolicited advice to the feds. They were too busy trying to rig markets and statistics to ever consider an intelligent approach to silver “management”.

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As you can see, the price of silver was contained between $4 and $5 for an extended period. This virtually guaranteed higher silver prices because the miners couldn’t bring forth high quantities of silver at such low prices. The advice, at the time, was to let silver quickly and naturally head towards $8 or $9 and let the miners do their dirty work for them.

That would have been the sensible way to keep silver off the radar screen. It’s merely a commodity, right? It couldn’t possibly be competition to the global fiat currency system. Or could it? They insisted upon their futile attempts to hold silver down against its fundamentals. Oh well.

Some folks around the world have this strange idea that silver is actually money. There seems to be a lot of them too. That’s a tough battle to fight with fiat money heading to the crapper.

Silver has retraced some of its 2008 gains. That’s typically what happens when prices skyrocket. The long-term bull remains intact. The miners are still notbringing forth the supply required to put out this fire.

The advice to the silver managers remains the same. The miners will bring forth ample supply if they are allowed sufficient profits and sufficient time. Deny their profits and silver will just go that much higher before this bull market ends.

Silver should be a minimum of $30 right now. The longer it is suppressed, the higher it will go.

The silver mining stocks appear to have little connection with the physical substance. They remain depressed and unloved. You can make extraordinary profits from a particularly well chosen silver stock at present prices. All the more so at $25 or $30. Please don’t tell anyone, though, because some of us are still working on buying gobs of silver miners and explorers. Shhh…

Gold-

It’s pretty much the same story here with this precious metal. The knuckleheads at the Fed/Treasury have long tried to suppress this market against its fundamentals. That is a doomed strategy from the start. They attempted to force gold below $200. They wasted their supplies of gold in defending points that were way too low… $300, $350, $400, $500 etc. The advice at the time was to allow a high enough price that the miners could bring forth ample supply to keep the price down.

The anti-gold forces remain well behind the curve to this day. They have scared the crap out of the miners with all their suppressive shenanigans over the years. The miners remain on pins and needles in fear of the bottom dropping out of their product. They have yet to ramp up production. South African gold production is crippled by long standing government energy policies and subsequent power outages. Global production continues to fall in spite of seemingly ‘high’ gold prices.

The fiat loving central planners have another opportunity to square things in the gold arena. Allow gold to go to $1250 as soon as possible and let it be known that it will stay at that level for an extended period. The gold companies would get quite excited and actually ply their trade. Gold would pour out of the ground in short order. There would likely be an oversupply in no time and the price of gold would stabilize and eventually maybe even go lower.

The miners would be happy. Mining shareholders would be happy. Most physical gold holders would be happy. Central banks would be able to cease their uneconomical dumping. The gold cartel could then turn its attention to more important things like rigging the stock market and fixing the broken clownbuck.

The exploration and mining stocks get less than Rodney Dangerfield respect these days. There is a chasm between the share prices and the price of gold. I continue to see the anomaly in the shares.

A bit of research would demonstrate the global historical affinity for all things gold. Do our elitist leaders know there are a bunch of people in India, China, the Middle East and other developing countries?  These foreigners think of gold as money and they aren’t the ones that are confused.

Gold is performing its historic function. Government follies continue as far as the eye can see. We have yet to hit bottom. Gold will continue to grind higher. The present economic and monetary crisis could hardly be more precious metal friendly.

I’ll highlight a few more desirable commodities in next week’s edition. In the meantime, make sure you are loaded with gold and silver… but don’t neglect the tar and feathers!

Invest resourcefully,

Rusty

P.S.  To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.

Market Watch

The Link Between Oil and Market Performance is Strong

By Charles Delvalle

What affects the market today could mean nothing tomorrow, but there is one dynamic I’ve been seeing over and over in today’s market. It relates to the price of oil.

Consider that since November, the Dow Jones has dropped 20 percent. Oil on the other hand, has doubled and nearly every day that oil hits a new record high, the stock market ends down on the day.  On Monday, when oil prices fell $4 a barrel, the market rallied higher.

The reason oil is having such a nasty effect on the stock market is because as prices move higher, consumers have less money to spend on other things. That means company profits should drop and could lead to a slew of nasty things like layoffs and bankruptcies.

Another reason why the market tends to sell-off on record high oil prices is inflation. As oil prices move higher, inflation levels go up with them. Unless companies want smaller profit margins, they have to increase prices. Either way, it’s not a good recipe for success.

As long as the price of oil keeps moving higher, the market will have a hard time rallying significantly. Oil won’t rally forever. Once we start seeing some stability or a small correction in oil prices, expect the market to rally nicely.

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The Market Minute

The Dollar May Have Bottomed… At least that’s what the U.S. Dollar index is pointing too. Since March, the dollar has been steadily hitting higher highs and higher lows. It seems that the thought of an oncoming rate hike is giving the dollar some support. Of course, traders are ignoring the huge slowdown going on in the U.S. Regardless, unless economic growth weakens substantially, it looks like the dollar will slowly move higher.
 

 
KISS
 
In The Markets
 
Last
Change
YTD
Dow 11,384.21 none152.25 -14.18%
Nasdaq 2,294.42 none51.10 -13.49%
S&P 500 1,273.69 none21.38 -13.26%
Gold 920.10 none6.00 10.42%
Silver 17.80 none0.01 20.51%
Oil 135.94 none5.43 41.63%
Nat Gas 12.31 none0.62 64.57%
 
Newsworthy

Microsoft Corp. said it may renew talks for a transaction with Yahoo! Inc., the second most popular U.S. search engine, if investors back Carl Icahn's attempt to oust the board and Chief Executive Officer Jerry Yang.

Yahoo shares rose as much as 12 percent after Microsoft, the world's biggest software maker, said it might try to buy the search business or the whole company. Microsoft has been in talks in the past week with Icahn, the billionaire investor who controls about 69 million Yahoo shares.

Icahn is building momentum ahead of a Yahoo shareholder vote on his board slate next month. Icahn, who said the companies need to combine to compete with Google Inc., has already won backing from holders including T. Boone Pickens, chairman of BP Capital LLC, and hedge-fund manager John Paulson.

Microsoft's backing “really strengthens Icahn's position,” said Stanford Group Co.'s Clay Moran. “A deal is very much back on the table.” The Boca Raton, Florida-based analyst advises investors to hold on to Yahoo shares and doesn't own any.

-Bloomberg.com

 

 
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Analysts / Editorial Contributors
Michael Masterson
Charles Delvalle
Andrew M. Gordon
Dr. Russell Mcdougal D.D.S.

 

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