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Monday, March 31, 2008

Let's Play "Name That Merged Company"

 
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Investor's Daily Edge
Monday, March 31, 2008
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MicroHoo!, How About YaMicro!,
Maybe MicroYa

 

By Rick Pendergraft

Negotiations continue between Microsoft and Yahoo! about a possible merger between the software behemoth and the Internet giant.  Which of the names above do you like the best?  I am partial to the last one, if only because it is kind of fun to say.  Although the first one is also fun.  The middle one would never work with the Yahoo portion coming first.  As benevolent as Bill Gates is, I don’t think his ego would allow any joint name between Microsoft and Yahoo! where the Yahoo portion came first.

Terms have not been agreed upon, but the shear discussion of such a marriage has other Internet companies and legislators alike clamoring about the ramifications.

Google, a rival to both Yahoo! and Microsoft, didn’t waste any time voicing their concerns over a joint Microsoft/Yahoo! beast.  Google CEO Eric Schmidt is on record saying that the deal could “break the Internet and diminish choice.” 

Google has made a significant dent in the free email service industry with their Gmail service.  Microsoft and Yahoo! were the dominant players in the field before Google entered the picture.  Google is also attempting to cut into Microsoft’s turf by offering Internet applications that compete with the Office software suite.

So now Google is worried that a joint effort between Microsoft and Yahoo will kill the Internet.  I don’t think so.  As my colleague Lynn Carpenter pointed out last Thursday in the Market Minute of IDE, Google has now become a verb.  I have not heard anyone say Yahoo this or Microsoft that. 

Google is the king of search engines, claiming 59.5 percent of the domestic market and 62.8 percent of international search engine activity.  While the combined efforts of Yahoo! and Microsoft would certainly be more competitive in this arena, they still would not eclipse Google.

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Google is also kicking butt in the advertising revenue segment, raking in almost 40 percent of the online advertising market.

Yahoo! has the dominant position in news traffic and is still the number one email service provider in the world, despite Google’s efforts with Gmail.  Microsoft and Yahoo! are both among the leaders in instant messaging. 

So why is Microsoft pursuing Yahoo!?  It seems like the strengths are overlapping.  If the goal is to compete with Google, what is the attraction?  Google recently acquired YouTube and DoubleClick.  These were acquisitions that created new segments for Google or enhanced areas where they were weak.

Microsoft and Yahoo! would create a virtual monopoly in instant messaging and would put them in a more dominant position in email service and the on-line news arena.  But what else would the merger bring to the table?

Legislators are jockeying to voice their opinion on the potential merger.  Most of them are concerned about potential unfair advantages for the merged company.

I don’t see it.

As I stated above, the combined entity of Microsoft and Yahoo! would not be dominant anywhere they aren’t already.  Google would still be dominant in the search engine and ad revenue areas.  I understand the posturing by Google and their CEO, but I for one don’t see the need for concern.

Personally, the acquisitions by Google made more sense than this one potential acquisition by Microsoft.  If I were the CEO of Google, I would stay the course and let Microsoft spend the $44 billion it will take to complete the deal.  It might even be more than that in the end.

And the joint company will not be an attractive investment, in my humble opinion.

With that in mind, I have the perfect name for the company - SoftHoo.

Good luck and good trading,

Rick

P.S.  To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.

[Ed. Note: Subscribers to Rick’s KISS Investing service recently closed out gains of approximately 150% on Continental Airlines and 175% on the Diamonds Trust. Click here to learn more about KISS Investing]

Market Watch

Has It Really Been A Month Already?

 

By Rick Pendergraft

It’s hard to believe that it has already been a month since we got the last employment report.  But it has.  The employment report for March is due out on Friday, and it will certainly be the most watched economic report for the week.

There are a couple of reports that will be worth watching before the employment report on Friday.  Tomorrow we will see the ISM Index for March.  The index is expected to decline ever so slightly after setting a five-year low in February. 

Factory orders for February will be released Wednesday morning, and they are expected to improve after a drop of 2.5 percent in January.  February’s report is expected to show growth of 0.7 percent.  With durable goods coming in much worse than expected last week, I think this could be too high a hurdle to clear.

Finally, on Friday we will get the March employment report.  Expectations are for a net loss of 43,000 jobs for the month.  This is on top of the 63,000 jobs lost in February.  The Fed heads can say all that want about whether or not we are in a recession.  But when we see a decline in jobs for three straight months, I say we are in a recession.

Date

Time (ET)

Statistic

For

Market Expects

Prior

31-Mar

9:45

Chicago PMI

Mar

46.7

44.5

1-Apr

0:00

Auto Sales

Mar

5.1M

5.0M

1-Apr

0:00

Truck Sales

Mar

6.6M

6.6M

1-Apr

10:00

Construction Spending

Feb

-0.90%

-1.70%

1-Apr

10:00

ISM Index

Mar

48.2

48.3

2-Apr

8:15

ADP Employment

Mar

-23K

-23K

2-Apr

10:00

Factory Orders

Feb

0.70%

-2.50%

3-Apr

10:00

ISM Services

Mar

49.2

49.3

4-Apr

8:30

Nonfarm Payrolls

Mar

-40K

-63K

4-Apr

8:30

Unemployment Rate

Mar

5.00%

4.80%

4-Apr

8:30

Hourly Earnings

Mar

0.30%

0.30%

4-Apr

8:30

Average Workweek

Mar

33.7

33.7

 

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The Market Minute

Fizzled Out…After a strong showing on Monday, the market fizzled out throughout the week.  Down days for the Dow over each of the last four days led to a losing week.  The Dow had managed two straight positive weeks and just as the bulls thought they had control- WHAM- the bears take control again.  This week is filled with potential market moving reports, so stay on your toes.

 
KISS
 
In The Markets
 
Last
Change
YTD
Dow 12,216.40 none86.06 -7.90%
Nasdaq 2,261.18 none19.65 -14.75%
S&P 500 1,315.22 none10.44 -10.43%
Gold 932.00 none15.50 11.84%
Silver 17.81 none0.50 20.58%
Oil 105.25 none2.33 9.66%
Nat Gas 9.80 none0.07 31.02%
 
Newsworthy

“Mortgage rates remained near 6% [last] week--and are even up slightly from the previous week--despite Federal Reserve efforts to push interest rates lower.

“A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage currently costs 5.68 percent, slightly above the 5.66 percent a week ago, according to Bankrate.com.  The rate has fallen a bit, though, since hitting 5.74 percent just before the Fed announced a three-quarter-point rate cut last Tuesday.

“Still, Fed efforts to ease credit haven't had much impact on mortgage rates.  Banks remain reluctant to lend money to homebuyers because so many mortgages have soured over the past year.  And investors are leery of buying mortgage-backed securities, which makes funding mortgages that much harder.

“Instead of lending money, banks are using the easier credit to boost their balance sheets and pay dividends.  The result has been little relief in mortgage rates at a time when the housing industry is suffering from a pronounced lack of buyers, driving sales to their lowest point in decades.

“The slowness in real estate has confounded analysts who consider current interest rates a strong enticement for buyers to get back into the market.”

-- CNBC.com

 
Income
 
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Analysts / Editorial Contributors
Michael Masterson
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Andrew M. Gordon
Dr. Russell Mcdougal D.D.S.
Rick Pendergraft
Chris Johnson

 

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