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Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Leeb's Market Forecast

  Leeb's Market Forecast
  March 26, 2008

Dear Investor,
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Leeb’s Ground-Floor Trader Weekly Update

In the financial markets, dramatic moves in one direction often are reversed soon thereafter. That's because smart investors recognize an overreaction and quickly take advantage.

 

Essentially, that's what has happened last week when investors took profits in commodities -- which had enjoyed a tremendous surge -- and moved back into oversold stocks, particularly in the financial sector. The selloff in commodities was to be expected after they had come so far, so far. But it was a little steeper than we anticipated, and inspired some commentators to applaud the "bursting" of the "commodity bubble."

 

We disagree. In any bull market, a correction occurs when short-term enthusiasm takes security prices beyond where they should be. That doesn't mean the bull market is over. In fact, we see the selloff in commodities -- particularly precious metals and energy -- as a buying opportunity; obviously, others agree, as many commodities rallied strongly today.

 

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The buying opportunity likely isn't over. Commodities won't shoot straight up from here. In the short run, for example, gold could fall further -- the mid-$800 range is possible. Oil also has remained higher than expected in the face of economic weakness; if it drops well below $100 a barrel, we won't be surprised. But the long-term trend for both gold and oil is definitely higher, and investors should retain their exposure -- and increase it on selloffs.

 

Why will commodity prices eventually resume their bull market? As we’ve been pointing out, virtually every metal is in scarcer supply in the U.S. -- still by far the world's largest economy -- than it was at the turn of the century. The same is true for oil. And agricultural commodities also are experiencing supply-demand constraints that have boosted their prices. Even if we have a mild recession here at home (still not a foregone conclusion), the global economy continues to grow. Upward pressure on commodities is a given in the coming years.

 

The IPO market remains sleepy, though not moribund. Last week's successful IPO for Visa (V) -- the largest in U.S. history -- shows that investors remain ready, willing and able to bid on attractive companies going public, even in a volatile market. Visa priced at $44 and immediately traded up.

 

Until next week,

 

Nick Lanyi, Editor, Leeb’s Ground Floor Trader

 

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