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From a technical perspective, I am torn when it comes to the outlook for the S&P. Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that the index is overbought and facing resistance from its 50-week moving average. On the daily chart, the index is coming out of an oversold level and bouncing between its 50 and 200-day moving averages. The trend line connecting the highs from October and November is still in place, but there is some room for the index to bounce. Based on the sentiment and the weekly chart, I look for a rough summer for the market, but the index could bounce a little before the downdraft resumes. Good luck and good trading, Rick P.S. To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com. [Ed. Note: Subscribers to Rick’s KISS Investing service recently closed out gains of approximately 150% on Continental Airlines and 175% on the Diamonds Trust. Click here to learn more about KISS Investing]
A Lot of Flash, But Little SubstanceBy Christian Hill The economic calendar is crowded this week with the release of 14 reports. But don’t be fooled by the impressive size, because very few are of any real importance. The Construction Spending report is the first one out of the gate today, and this report may actually beat expectations. Last week New Home Sales posted an unexpected jump, and the week before that the Retail Sales report indicated an increase in sales of building supplies. This leads me to believe that the report will beat estimates, albeit with a negative number. The market is expecting the ISM Index report today to show a decline. This would mean a fourth straight month of declining manufacturing activity. The Factory Orders report on Wednesday is expected to post a quite dramatic slowdown, with orders only growing at 0.10%. This report, along with the ISM report, paints a troubling picture for the manufacturing sector. The Nonfarm Payrolls report will be the most anticipated of the week. The expectation is for a loss of approximately fifty-thousand jobs. Given current conditions, I wouldn’t be surprised if the report is worse than expected, perhaps closer to seventy-thousand jobs lost. If indeed the May payroll number is lower, this would mark the fifth straight month of job loss.
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