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Monday, June 2, 2008

Beware Of The Dogs

 
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Investor's Daily Edge
Monday, June 2, 2008
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Are The Dog Days Of Summer A Thing Of The Past?

By Rick Pendergraft

Beware; we have now entered the dog days of summer.  Historically, stock market volume slows from Memorial Day until Labor Day.  The slow summer months are believed to come about because traders go on vacation and the traditional stereotype is that most of Wall Street is playing on the beaches in the Hamptons.

Is this stereotype a thing of the past?  I think it is.

Last summer, the volume on the New York Stock Exchange was higher in June, July, and August than it was in the three months prior or the three months after.  The credit crisis was just coming to light and this spurred some of the additional activity, but not all of it.

With a huge percentage of trades being entered electronically these days, the brokers and floor traders are not needed as much as they were in the past.

The old adage on Wall Street that says you should “sell in May and go away” was based on the summer months being boring, but I don’t think you can do this anymore.  Over the last few summers, there was plenty of movement and money to be made.  Most of it was on the down side of the market, so if you don’t like playing the short side of the market it made it tough, but there is just as much opportunity to the downside as there is the upside.

Just like you change your wardrobe for the summer months, you might want to change your investment tools for the summer months as well.  Don’t just pack away your trading like you do your winter clothes.  Learn to play moves to the downside and use some different tools to make money.

Given the shift in sentiment over the last few months, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another bearish summer.  The CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio, and in particular its 21-day moving average are sitting at very low levels.  The 21-day moving average is as low as it has been since the end of December, right before the S&P pulled back from 1,500 to 1,300 in just under a month.

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From a technical perspective, I am torn when it comes to the outlook for the S&P.  Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that the index is overbought and facing resistance from its 50-week moving average.

On the daily chart, the index is coming out of an oversold level and bouncing between its 50 and 200-day moving averages.  The trend line connecting the highs from October and November is still in place, but there is some room for the index to bounce.

Based on the sentiment and the weekly chart, I look for a rough summer for the market, but the index could bounce a little before the downdraft resumes.

Good luck and good trading,

Rick

P.S.  To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.

[Ed. Note: Subscribers to Rick’s KISS Investing service recently closed out gains of approximately 150% on Continental Airlines and 175% on the Diamonds Trust. Click here to learn more about KISS Investing]

Market Watch

A Lot of Flash, But Little Substance

By Christian Hill

The economic calendar is crowded this week with the release of 14 reports. But don’t be fooled by the impressive size, because very few are of any real importance.

The Construction Spending report is the first one out of the gate today, and this report may actually beat expectations. Last week New Home Sales posted an unexpected jump, and the week before that the Retail Sales report indicated an increase in sales of building supplies. This leads me to believe that the report will beat estimates, albeit with a negative number.

The market is expecting the ISM Index report today to show a decline. This would mean a fourth straight month of declining manufacturing activity.

The Factory Orders report on Wednesday is expected to post a quite dramatic slowdown, with orders only growing at 0.10%. This report, along with the ISM report, paints a troubling picture for the manufacturing sector.

The Nonfarm Payrolls report will be the most anticipated of the week. The expectation is for a loss of approximately fifty-thousand jobs. Given current conditions, I wouldn’t be surprised if the report is worse than expected, perhaps closer to seventy-thousand jobs lost.  If indeed the May payroll number is lower, this would mark the fifth straight month of job loss.
 


Date

Time (ET)

Statistic

For

Market Expects

Prior

2-Jun

10:00 AM

Construction Spending

Apr

-0.60%

-1.10%

2-Jun

10:00 AM

ISM Index

May

48

48.6

3-Jun

12:00 AM

Auto Sales

May

NA

4.9M

3-Jun

12:00 AM

Truck Sales

May

NA

5.6M

3-Jun

10:00 AM

Factory Orders

Apr

0.10%

1.40%

4-Jun

8:15 AM

ADP Employment

May

-30K

10K

4-Jun

8:30 AM

Productivity-Rev.

Q1

2.50%

2.20%

4-Jun

10:00 AM

ISM Services

May

51

52

6-Jun

8:30 AM

Average Workweek

May

33.7

33.7

6-Jun

8:30 AM

Hourly Earnings

May

0.20%

0.10%

6-Jun

8:30 AM

Nonfarm Payrolls

May

-52K

-20K

6-Jun

8:30 AM

Unemployment Rate

May

5.10%

5.00%

6-Jun

10:00 AM

Wholesale Inventories

Apr

0.50%

-0.10%

6-Jun

3:00 PM

Consumer Credit

Apr

$7.7B

$15.3B

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The Market Minute

Mixed messages… personal income and personal consumption both slowed sharply in April.  Personal consumption increased by a measly 0.2 percent, half the 0.4 percent in March and it was flat if you take out the price hikes.  Personal income crept up by 0.2 percent in April and that included the tax rebate checks that have been mailed thus far.  Not exactly the kind of information that makes you feel warm and fuzzy about the economy is it?

 
KISS
 
In The Markets
 
Last
Change
YTD
Dow 12,638.32 none7.90 -4.72%
Nasdaq 2,522.66 none14.34 -4.89%
S&P 500 1,400.38 none2.12 -4.63%
Gold 886.70 none9.70 6.41%
Silver 16.85 none0.25 14.08%
Oil 127.55 none0.93 32.89%
Nat Gas 11.70 none0.07 56.42%
 
Newsworthy

CHICAGO (AP) -- Many Americans allowed themselves to fantasize about large-screen TVs, European vacations and other luxuries when they learned of the federal rebates they'd be getting this spring and early summer.

Or maybe -- shh, don't tell the president -- they'd pay off a credit card or set the rebate aside for a big purchase in the future, notwithstanding Washington's intentions that they pump it immediately into the flagging economy.

"It's not often you get a windfall like that that you can just stash away for something you need later," said Sara Jackson, 29, a graphic designer in Chattanooga, Tenn.

But reality has interfered, in the form of ever-climbing food bills and $4-a-gallon gasoline. Day-to-day living costs have sopped up the checks for many other early recipients and spoiled their rebate fantasies. Government figures released Friday showed consumer spending inched up just 0.2 percent in April, despite widespread anticipation of the stimulus payments sent out starting late in the month.

Based on a small but broadly diverse group of consumers who tracked their rebate spending in detail for The Associated Press, there was no mass rush to the malls for shopping sprees after the payments started showing up in bank accounts in significant numbers in May. The greater economic ramifications may not be seen for months.

-AP


 
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