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Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Oil Keeps Climbing: But Oil Stocks Not Following Suit

 
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Tuesday, June 17, 2008
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Asia Has the Subsidies, We have the Pigs

By Andrew Gordon

Don’t kill the messenger, but as high as crude prices are, they’re going to go higher. This despite the impact that the U.S. economic slump is having on oil demand.

The U.S. is by far the biggest user of oil in the OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) and the latest forecast has OECD consumption dropping by 240,000 barrels per day. The U.S. is using 400,000 fewer barrels per day than last year.

Global consumption is slowing too. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says the world will be using 70,000 fewer barrels per day than in its last monthly report. This is the fifth month in a row that the IEA has reduced its oil use projections.  

But while global oil consumption is ratcheting down slowly but surely, crude production is declining faster. The IEA says in the same report that global crude production will drop by an additional 300,000 barrels per day.

Right now, the world is consuming 86.77 million barrels per day. But supply stands at 85 million barrels.

In other words, we have a supply deficit and it’s getting worse.

And here’s some more bad news. As fast as gas prices are increasing, crude prices are going up even faster. If gasoline prices had kept up with the price of crude prices over the past year, gas prices would be over $5.00 right now.

Believe it or not, crude prices aren’t going up forever. But gas prices will probably continue to lag behind crude prices on the way down, just like they did on the way up. I’m telling you this now so you don’t scream “bloody murder” when it happens.

Now, if you want a scapegoat for why we’re spending a ridiculous $700 billion a year on oil imports, you can of course point your finger at our bumbling government. To say it has a wrong-headed energy policy would be implying that it has an energy policy of some kind, and that would be a gross exaggeration.

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From a lack of energy conservation policies to lax CAFE (corporate average fuel economy) standards, the U.S. government has blown it. The government doesn’t seem to realize it has put us in this situation. And, similarly, it has no idea how to get us out of it.

But at least the U.S. government is not guilty of shielding consumers from the steep rise of fuel prices – like they’re doing in Asia and countries like Mexico and Egypt.
It’s Asian growth that is driving oil consumption – not growth here or in Europe. And, not uncoincidentally, it’s in Asia where prices have crept rather than leapt higher this year. In China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and other Asian countries, heavy subsidies have contributed to the sustained growth in oil consumption.

Having said that, we’re the oil pigs. Not them.

India consumes less than one barrel. China is over but not my much. The U.S. has the third highest per capita consumption. And given our large population, we’re by far the biggest users.

Once these developing countries start to catch up to us in planes, trains and automobiles, global oil consumption needs will be much higher than they are.
But how much higher? It’s a bit tricky when you’re projecting 10-20 years into the future.

Next week I’ll give you my thoughts on what is waiting for us down the road, and who if anybody will be leading the next energy revolution.

Good Trading,

Andrew Gordon

P.S.  To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.

[Ed. Note: With a bear market looming, it’s more important than ever to select safe investments that produce monthly dividend income. Click here to learn about Andy Gordon's INCOME service that selects the best dividend-paying stocks available.]

Market Watch

What's Wrong With Big Oil Companies?

By Andrew Gordon

Take a look at the brown line below. It’s the United States Oil ETF which follows the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. On the Friday before last – June 6th – oil spiked.  It opened at $130.75. It hit a high of $138.80 before giving up 26 cents and closing at $138.54.

The big oil companies, including the ones shown below – ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, British Petroleum and Chevron – did not go up with the oil spike. Instead they went down with the market (the S&P 500 is the light green line below). What else can we see from this chart?

  • The New Year kicked off with everything going down.
  • Oil prices began taking off in February. Not so for the big oil companies or the S&P.
  • Eventually, oil stocks began to recover. By May, they were in positive territory.

Since the beginning of the year, the price of oil has risen over 40 percent. During that time BP, ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell dropped in value. They’ve done no better or no worse than the overall market.

Chevron is an exception and there are others. But the surge in oil prices hasn’t been the bonanza for “Big Oil” shareholders that you might have expected.

Now, with prices this high, demand destruction is beginning to set in. As my colleague, Charles Delvalle noted last Friday, people are driving much less this summer.

High oil prices may not have fueled share prices of the big oil companies. But they are providing a huge opening for other energy sources. Don’t forget nuclear. The sector is off the radar of investors, but nuclear’s rebirth is only a matter or time.

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The Market Minute

Inflation Gone Global – The market went down partly on inflation fears last week before staging a much-needed recovery on Friday. But inflation is not only an American problem. Europe is also fighting the specter of inflation. And inflation in China is running at about eight percent. In India, it’s feared inflation could go over 10 percent. Food, energy and commodities are feeding the inflation monster worldwide. Global credit tightening seems inevitable. And with it, global economic growth will take another serious body blow.
 

 
INCOME
 
In The Markets
 
Last
Change
YTD
Dow 12,269.08 none38.27 -7.51%
Nasdaq 2,474.78 none20.28 -6.69%
S&P 500 1,360.14 none0.11 -7.37%
Gold 882.30 none11.50 5.88%
Silver 17.13 none0.62 15.98%
Oil 133.8 none1.06 39.40%
Nat Gas 12.91 none0.27 72.59%
 
Newsworthy

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A "credit recession" sparked by the U.S. housing market downturn and excesses in structured finance may last more than two years, and the financial sector will undergo "massive consolidation," leading Wall Street strategists said on Wednesday.

"We're going through a tough spell with regard to credit," Malvey said at a Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association conference.
The "subprime debacle" due to years of excess and easy credit will be followed by years of tight credit, Malvey said.

Financial earnings have suffered due to exposure to so-called structured finance debt and collateralized debt obligations, repackaged bonds whose underlying securities may be based on assets such as risky subprime mortgages.

Richard Bernstein, chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (MER.N), said that in the last market cycle downturn, about 25 percent of financial firms -- including brokers, banks and asset managers -- "went away," he said, referring to bankruptcies or mergers and acquisitions.

Only 7.0 percent of financial firms have failed or been acquired so far in this crisis, Bernstein said.

Like Lehman, Merrill's earnings have suffered due to structured finance.

-- Reuters

 
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Meet the Team

MaryEllen Tribby - Publisher
Jedd Canty - Business Director
Rick Pendergraft - Managing Editor
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Analysts / Editorial Contributors
Michael Masterson
Charles Delvalle
Andrew M. Gordon
Dr. Russell Mcdougal D.D.S.

 

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