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Friday, May 30, 2008

The Green Light for Investing

Green is in… But Why? Part III
 
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Friday, May 30, 2008
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Green is in… But Why?
Part III

By Charles Delvalle

There’s a small revolution going on…

You see it on TV when the commercials come on. You see it on the front page of your local newspaper. You see it everywhere.

New corporations are being formed because of this revolution. And money is flooding into this sector undeterred.

If you haven’t figured it out, I’m talking about green investing. And as gas prices rocket higher and higher, green technology will become even more widespread.

In the past two weeks, I have written about the subject. I’ve discussed that for the most part, the economics of becoming green don’t make sense. But thanks to higher gas prices, green energy is becoming more and more commonplace.

For example, the Financial Times estimates that by 2030, plug-in cars will make up 50% of all cars sold. According to the World Watch Institute, starting in 2010, China will spend over $236 billion each year on green investments.

That’s huge. But that’s not all…

In a recent Harper’s Magazine article, it was pointed out that to have a bubble you need three things:

  1. Government incentives or deregulation
  2. An irrational belief that drives the masses to buy
  3. A sector which can spawn new ways to make money nearly instantly

Now think about it. The Internet bubble saw all three things.

The government decided not to collect taxes from online purchases. They also helped speed up adoption of broadband and granted various tax credits to companies that would deal in technology (Silicon Valley anyone?). So obviously, the government helped.

Second, most people believed the Internet was the future. They thought that it would be so huge that life itself would depend on it (they weren’t wrong, just early). Remember the Y2K bug scare? That was part of America’s obsession with technology.

To make matters worse, everyone thought that buying an Internet stock was a sure bet. Companies were spawning every day and they all thought they had a great idea. But the problem was that they were only ideas. I saw my best friend’s father make over $140,000 – and then lose almost all of it as the bubble burst.

Now let’s look at the real estate bubble.

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Under Greenspan, financial regulation was a joke. He believed in a free market and so thought that any government regulation would result in more harm than good. Add in the super-low interest rates we had and you’ll see that banks had the green light to grow undeterred.

Mix all of this in with the belief most people had that real estate never goes down, and you’ve got yet another bubble recipe brewing. Heck, people who had never bought real estate were buying and flipping houses and speculative vacant lots in a matter of months.

Finally, when mortgage demand started drying up, banks started issuing subprime, interest only, and no-doc loans. Then they would pull mortgages off their balance sheet, wrap them up in a nifty little investment vehicle, and sell them to hedge funds, banks, and investors looking for the supposedly safer mortgage backed returns. These banks were essentially creating these investment vehicles out of thin air.

As you can see, the real estate market also fits the profile of a bubble.

So how about the green market?

Well, the government recently incentivized production of ethanol, biofuel, and solar technology. If a Democrat gets into office, these incentives should grow. Congress even pushed up the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) guidelines for the first time since 1975. And the idea of carbon credits is beginning to gain traction in Congress.

So the government is helping fuel the creation of cleaner energy. Step one is complete.

What about step two?

If I talk to any of my friends and tell them I love the things oil does to the earth, they’ll slap me (yes, I know oil is bad for the earth). If I told them that I didn’t recycle, they’d yell at me (yes, I recycle). My friends are already convinced that the green movement is the way to go.

If you type in the word ‘green’ in Google, you’ll see thousands of new websites that all talk about how great it is to be green.

Look at corporate trends, and you see more commercials with companies talking about going green. Wal-Mart, IBM, Intel, Google,  and even ExxonMobil is getting into the act. The idea of going green is spreading like wildfire. And it will only increase as gas prices move higher.

The green market is definitely seeing the second step. But how about the third?

Have you seen solar stocks lately? In the past two years, these companies have popped by 100% - 300%. And it seems like a new solar company pops up every other day touting a ‘breakthrough’ technology that allows amazing conversion of light to electricity. Many have no profits to speak of and don’t plan on entering production for years.

Ethanol stocks were moving higher for a while, but have gone down since the middle of last year (maybe investors are catching on to how ‘not green’ ethanol really is). Geothermal producers are shooting higher. And those who sell wind turbines are making great money on increasing orders.

By 2030, Morgan Stanley expects green sales across the globe to total over $1 trillion (that’s bigger than the Gross Domestic Product of 169 of the 181 member countries of the International Monetary Fund!).

Most people I speak to see green technology as the wave of the future. It’ll only be a matter of time until they think that investing in green companies is a no-brainer.

In the end, this whole green movement we see today could very well be the start of yet another massive bubble. And considering the riches that were made during the two previous bubbles, catching the green investment mania early on would be a great way to make a lot of coin in the next few years.

In that spirit, next week I’ll be covering one of the biggest near-term areas of growth in the green sector.

Until next time,

Charles

P.S. I just started up a new blog and would love for you to check it out.  Just go to http://stockcharlie.blogspot.com/.  I’ll be giving you my unrestricted opinion on economic developments and the effect politics can have on the markets.  Make sure to comment and let me know what you think!

P.P.S.  To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.

[Ed Mention: Want to know how you could ‘buy’ an ounce of silver for less than $1.60? Click here to find out how…]
Market Watch

Ride or Slide: Nokia (NOK)

By Charles Delvalle

A few years ago, I had a phone from Nokia (NOK) and I hated it.

It was annoying. The games weren’t fun and the quality of the phone wasn’t the best. But Nokia has changed a lot since then. Maybe that’s why reader Neville A. wanted my opinion on the company.

Nokia is a great international company. Their numbers are good and they have some attractive, feature-rich new phones in the pipeline. Their biggest growth driver will be the GPS technology they plan to include in every phone.

According to iSuppli, there will be 250 million GPS-enabled phones shipping by 2010, and the number of cell phone users checking out maps on their mobile phones should grow by over 1,000% by 2014.

NOK has dropped from $40 to $28 per share in the past six months. This is strange considering their earnings grew by over 25% in the most recent quarter. 

The stock appears to have found a bottom around the $28 mark, and that’s why I say ride this sucker! (but exit if they fall too far under $28)

P.S. Want to see me cover a stock?  Send an e-mail to feedback@investorsdailyedge.com

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The Market Minute

Thank goodness for exports … because they were a big reason why First-Quarter GDP didn’t contract. Yesterday, the first quarter GDP revision came in at 0.9% growth. Want to know how much of that was due to exports? 0.8%. Now that the dollar is beginning to strengthen, expect our export growth to slow. And with it, the economy.

 
INCOME
 
In The Markets
 
Last
Change
YTD
Dow 12,646.22 none52.19 -4.66%
Nasdaq 2,508.32 none21.62 -5.43%
S&P 500 1,398.26 none7.42 -4.77%
Gold 877.30 none22.60 5.28%
Silver 16.61 none0.80 12.46%
Oil 126.83 none4.20 32.14%
Nat Gas 11.49 none0.53 53.61%
 
Newsworthy

Investigators are looking for any signs of whether improper manipulation or coordination contributed to the demise of Bear Stearns, according to unnamed sources familiar with the situation cited in the report. The probe is focused on credit-default swaps, financial contracts in which one side pays another to assume the risk that a bond or loan will go bad.

The newspaper said its own review of the records did not suggest any improper trading activity in the weeks before J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. agreed to buy the Manhattan firm with support from the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve of New York.

The trades drawing scrutiny were made by Paulson & Co., Citadel Investment Group and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., according to the report.

The newspaper also said that in the three weeks before the company's downfall, those firms closed out about 400 trades in which Bear Stearns was the counterparty. The report also said regulators asked Bear Stearns to highlight anything they found unusual in the documentation of those trades.

Credit-default-swap trades swelled to a volume 10 to 20 times higher than normal in the two weeks before Bear Stearns' implosion, a counterparty risk analyst told the paper.

-marketwatch.com

 
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Meet the Team

MaryEllen Tribby - Publisher
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Analysts / Editorial Contributors
Michael Masterson
Charles Delvalle
Andrew M. Gordon
Dr. Russell Mcdougal D.D.S.

 

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