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Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Naked Short Selling Is Pure And Unfounded B.S.

INVESTOR'S DAILY EDGE UNPLUGGED
ABOUT IDE FAQS ARCHIVES PRODUCTS CONTACT US WHITELIST US  
IN THIS ISSUE  
The Boy Genius Imparts Pure and Unfounded B.S.
Clearing Up A Few Things On Naked Short Selling
MEET THE TEAM
  MaryEllen Tribby
Publisher
  Jedd Canty
Business Director
  Nicole Reynolds
Marketing
  Jon Herring
Editor
ANALIST/EDITORIAL CONTRIBUTORS
  Charles Delvalle
  Andrew M. Gordon
  Dr. Russell McDougal
D.D.S.
  Rick Pendergraft
  Lynn Carpenter
  Andy Carpenter
  Christian Hill
   
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
  The Boy Genius Imparts Pure and Unfounded B.S.  
 

 

Charles Delvalle

A few weeks ago, I was a musketeer.

And just when I thought the name calling was over, I find out that I’m also a ‘Boy Genius’.

What am I Jimmy Neutron now?

For those that don’t have kids (or whose kids are too old), Jimmy Neutron is a famous Nickelodeon cartoon character. And by the time this one became popular, I was well over watching cartoons on Nickelodeon.  I was more into Ren and Stimpy and Catdog, personally. But if you must call me a ‘Boy Genius’ then feel free. There are far worse names.

For fairness though, you should see exactly what Thomas F. said in his e-mail. Mind you, he wrote it after Andrew Gordon wrote an article talking about dying industries. Here’s what he said…

Andrew, who listens to radio anymore? You may inform the boy genius that 20 million listeners tune in regularly to Rush, and his audience and profits are equaled by very few in any other media. Also, I am 65 years old and do very well trading on line. It is true that I only offer personal anecdotal evidence, but the generalities made by Charles are also unfounded and pure b.s.

Did I hit a nerve there, Thomas? I certainly didn’t mean to offend, but I was taken aback by what you called “unfounded and pure B.S.”.

You are right –a lot of people still listen to terrestrial radio. But that doesn’t take away from the fact that it’s a dying medium of communication. If you don’t believe me, maybe you should see what some other reputable sources all say about terrestrial radio…

Terrestrial radio's still a dying joke
-CNet

The commercial radio industry is dying
-Telegraph.co.uk

So it’s not just me saying this ‘unfounded and pure B.S.’

In fact, I think the market believes it too. According to BusinessWeek…

Rush Limbaugh may still mint millions, but a private equity firm that ran stock analyses of key publicly traded media companies in the past five years found that the worst-performing sector was radio, which managed the neat feat of underperforming newspaper companies.

I guess this ‘unfounded and pure B.S.’ is spreading into the numbers too.

But seriously, I do listen to the radio from time to time. But it’s only when there isn’t much on SIRIUS Radio … or when I don’t have my CD’s in the car.

And even when I do listen to the radio, I always happen to catch it on commercials. I swear there’s some conspiracy going on, because when one station has a commercial, I find the next station has one too.

Sometimes I go through four stations, all with commercials. How annoying!

Is it any wonder that people are using their iPods, MP3 players, and Satellite radio to listen to music?

Speaking of Satellite Radio…

XM and Sirius have way more listeners than Rush – 18.5 million subscribers compared to about 14 million for Mr. Limbaugh.

Oh, and each of these subscribers pays about $12.95 for their content. Let’s see: $12.95 a month, 12 months a year, times 18.5 million subscribers comes out to… $2.87 billion a year in subscriber revenues.

Let’s say some people are paying less (there are yearly discounts and such), so that means satellite radio is making over $2 billion a year. I don’t think Rush can hold a candle to that.

And this doesn’t even include the money Satellite radio makes in advertising (yes, there are ads on the Howard Stern show).

In all fairness, I can’t take away from Rush’s incredible success. He recently became even more ridiculously paid than Howard Stern, a feat in and of itself. And he’s done much for the business itself. My hat is off to him, whether I agree with him or not.

But trying to choose the one, big star of terrestrial radio and using it as a case for terrestrial radio is a little skewed, don’t you think?

Since I’m on a roll talking about ‘unfounded and pure B.S.’, I might as well talk a little bit about last Wednesdays Brief on the Trade Deficit.

The Trade Deficit is Bad… But it Gives a Clear Signal

In that brief, I talked about how the trade deficit shrinking actually signals an economic recession.

One of our sharp readers, Robert R., rightfully pointed out…

Thanks for your short piece on the shrinking trade deficit.  Not to split hairs, though, I believe that you're mixing up cause and effect by saying that expectations of economic slowdown come after the trade deficit starts to shrink.  That kind of thinking might lead to a conclusion that trade deficits are intrinsically good, which may not be correct.

I think this was my fault… I may not have been clear with what I meant in the brief itself.

Robert you’re right on the mark regarding a trade deficit being a bad thing.

What I meant to do in this brief was simply point out that you can use the trade deficit as an indicator of future economic activity.

It just so happens that when the trade deficit is expanding, consumers are buying and economic activity is growing. I didn’t mean to imply that the trade deficit in and of itself was a good thing that caused growth.

I hope this clears up the misunderstanding. With that said, I’d love to leave you with a comment from Doug K. in England…

The last time I drove in the States was a trip in 2007 from Detroit right up into the Upper Peninsula and back in a hired Ford something – a pretty basic hire car model. It was awful – no acceleration, cornered like jelly on springs and basic features. I didn’t have the air conditioner on and we got 25 mpg on a good day. The equivalent Ford Focus here at the time had better acceleration and features and consumption levels at about 40 mpg.

As an environmentalist, the financial problems of your big three car manufacturers do not sadden me – instead I feel a rather nasty self-righteous smugness.

ANYTHING that reduces GWG emissions is to be welcomed.

Now that’s the way to think, Doug!

Stay free,

Charles

P.S.  To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.

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  Clearing Up A Few Things On Naked Short Selling  
 

Rick Pendergraft

 

This week’s Unplugged article is a quick one.  We have Tropical Storm Fay bearing down on us as I write and the power is already starting to flicker here in South Florida.

I received several emails about the concept of naked short selling and apparently there is still some confusion about the subject.

I enjoy your columns, and while I frequently agree with your thoughts and theories, sometimes I find it hard to follow your ideas.  Can you define more precisely "naked short selling"?  I think I know what you mean, but want to be certain.
Keep rocking!

Lea W.

As a novice investor, I didn't quite understand the difference between a naked short and a normal short. Shorts are confusing enough for beginners (for instance, why must the shares be borrowed?)
 
So, very humbly, I might suggest a few extra sentences in this article to explain what a naked short is, comparing it to a regular short.


Michael F.

I have struggled with how to explain this concept in simple terms for some time now.  When family and friends hear these terms and want to gain a better understanding of what is going on, I always try to accommodate them and explain it in terms they will understand.  But the idea of selling short and the concept of naked short selling is an area where I continue to struggle.

Here is the best I can do.  Say you agree to buy a car and you give the seller the money and expect to receive the title in three days (the same amount of time you have to deliver a stock you have sold).  But it turns out the seller isn’t really the owner.  The car you thought you just bought doesn’t exist.  Seems rather crooked doesn’t it? 

This is the equivalent of what the naked short sellers are doing.  They are selling shares they don’t own and not delivering the shares within the three-day period they have to deliver them.  They are essentially counterfeiting shares of company stock.

On a regular short sale, the seller is selling something they don’t own, but then they go out and borrow the shares from someone that does own them.  The seller pays interest in the way of margin for borrowing someone else’s shares and this is all perfectly legal.

The second area where I received feedback was the ramifications should the SEC suddenly start enforcing the rules regarding naked short selling.

It seems to me that if a hedge fund is naked short and they are "forced" to close, then what they will do is buy back their short position (and I assume at a profit).  Why do you assume that they will lose money?  Why would they be forced to sell assets "in order to cover the naked short?"  Wouldn't they just buy back the short at a profit?

As the naked shorters cover, won't the small companies rise in price (as their stock is bought)?  And would not the profits from that short covering be put into the larger companies, and wouldn't their stock rise as well?

Please explain.

Many thanks,
Dan B.

First, I want to say that this is a theory of mine and not anything I have heard or read somewhere else.  But here is how it would work… the short sellers would have to buy the shares that they sold that didn’t exist.  They may very well be at a profit right now, but if they were all forced to buy back shares all at once, the buying pressure on these shares would be phenomenal.  What was a profit would disappear very quickly as hundreds of institutional buyers enter the market trying to buy enough shares to cover their short position.  And remember, these are real shares not counterfeit shares.

Since most hedge funds are paid on performance, the don’t typically keep cash laying around to buy these shares, so they would need to sell “real shares” to raise capital.
So my theory is that small companies that have been the focus of the naked short selling would ramp up dramatically, while large-cap stocks with huge institutional ownership would fall.

Again, this is just a theory of mine and it is something the SEC needs to think about before they act too hastily. 

Good Luck and Good Trading,
Rick

P.S.  To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.

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